Bitcoin Struggles Near $87K as Whale Activity and ETF Stagnation Cloud December Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at about $87,485, down about 4% in the last 24 hours. This is because the world's largest cryptocurrency
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $87,485, down 4% in the last 24 hours due to poor institutional flows and cautious market positioning.
- Despite expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain levels above $90,000, raising concerns about its support zone.
- The derivatives market reflects cautious sentiment, with low interest in leveraged long bets and a higher number of put options indicating uncertainty among traders.
- On-chain signals suggest continued distribution, as large holders are preparing to sell rather than buy, complicating the outlook for Bitcoin's price in December.
Bitcoin BTC/USD is currently trading at about $87,485, down about 4% in the last 24 hours. This is because the world’s largest cryptocurrency is facing more pressure from poor institutional flows and cautious market positioning. Even though traditional risk assets are doing well and people are expecting the Federal Reserve to lower rates, Bitcoin has not been able to stay over $90,000. This makes some wonder if the digital asset can stay in its recent support zone or if it will have to make a bigger decline by the end of the year.
Fed Rate Cut Bets Surge But BTC Momentum Stalls
Market participants have raised their expectations for monetary easing by a lot. CME Group futures data now shows that there is an 87% chance of an interest rate cut on December 10, up from 71% just a week ago. This change occurs when indicators of a sluggish job market appear. For example, unemployment claims rose to 1.96 million in mid-November, which led investors to expect the Federal Reserve to adopt more expansionary policies.
But even though the economy is getting better, Bitcoin hasn’t seen any bullish momentum. The S&P 500 is only 1% off its all-time high, and gold has gone up 3.8% this week. However, Bitcoin is still caught in a consolidation pattern. The divergence shows that BTC’s future may be less tied to larger macro trends, especially as its connection to tech companies weakens.
Bitcoin Derivatives Market Reveals Cautious Sentiment
The derivatives markets for Bitcoin are showing a very cautious image. Monthly futures contracts are only 4% higher than spot markets, which is the same as last week and considerably below the 5–10% range that is usually observed when things are neutral. This low basis rate shows that there isn’t much interest in leveraged long bets, which is perhaps because Bitcoin dropped 18% in the last 30 days.
The options market tells a similar story. On both Thursday and Friday, the number of put (sell) options greatly over the number of call (buy) options. This shows that traders were quite unsure. The put-to-call premium volume ratio has gotten better since it hit an extraordinary 5x level favoring downside protection on November 21. However, it is still higher than the 1.3x level that would show more neutral market circumstances.
Bitcoin recently dropped below the lower band of a developing bear flag pattern, which adds to the negative technical picture. Technical analysts say that this breakdown might lead to a move toward $66,800 if the structure plays out completely. However, immediate support is at $80,400, which has offered rebounds earlier this month but is still weak.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows Remain Disappointing
The lack of new money coming into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is a major reason why Bitcoin’s price is not moving. Bitcoin ETFs only added $70 million in net assets for the week ending November 28. This is a little amount compared to the huge amounts that came in during early periods of institutional adoption. There were $220 million in Bitcoin ETF inflows and $312 million in Ether ETF inflows during Thanksgiving week, but this is only a small improvement.
The behavior of corporate Bitcoin holders is more worrisome. In the last two weeks, none of the big firms who use Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset have bought more. On November 17, Strategy, one of the biggest business buyers of Bitcoin, bought more of it. At the same time, 1,163 BTC were linked to On Thursday, SpaceX moved to new addresses, which led to rumors about a possible sale. However, there has been no official word on whether this is a change of custody or actual distribution.
BTC On-Chain Signals Point to Continued Distribution
The measurements on Bitcoin’s blockchain support the cautious view. The Exchange Whale Ratio, which tracks huge wallet inflows to exchanges, went up from 0.32 at the start of the month to 0.68 on November 27. Even though it has gone down to 0.53, it is still high enough to show that whales are getting ready to sell instead than buy. When this statistic stays high for several weeks, durable market bottoms are unusual.
The Hodler Net Position Change, which looks at how long-term investors behave, is also still very negative. For more than six months, these wallets have been selling off their holdings. This pattern finally changed before Bitcoin’s latest big spike in late September. It will be hard for bulls to keep the upward momentum going until this indicator turns positive again.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Path of Least Resistance Points Lower
Bitcoin will have a tough December because of how the market is now structured and how it works. Testing the immediate support level of $87,000 to $88,000, with the next important level at $80,400. If the price breaks below $80,400, that would fit with what analysts expect: a bigger decline that might go as low as $66,800 if liquidity stays tight.
On the upside, Bitcoin would need to confidently recapture $90,000 to remove immediate pressure. After that, it would need to rise beyond $93,000 to invalidate the bear flag breakdown. A real reversal would only happen if the price stayed above $97,100, which is the midway of the wider consolidation pattern. This would also open the door to a retest of resistance above $101,600.
- Check out our free forex signals
- Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
- Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
- Open a FREE Trading Account
Save