XRP Tests Critical $2 Support as Five Spot ETFs Enter First Full Trading Week
XRP is at a key point right now. It is above $2 and has dropped 2.1% in the last 24 hours. At the same time, five spot XRP ETFs are ending
Quick overview
- XRP is currently trading above $2 but has dropped 2.1% in the last 24 hours, influenced by new spot XRP ETFs and changing market dynamics.
- Significant outflows from exchanges have led to decreased liquidity, causing smaller orders to have a larger impact on XRP's price movements.
- Whale accumulation is evident, with the top 10,000 wallets holding over 85% of the total XRP supply, while unusual signals in the derivative market suggest traders are positioned for potential upside.
- Technical analysis indicates XRP is testing key support levels, with a bullish flag pattern suggesting a possible breakout to $2.73, though volatility is expected as the market adjusts.
XRP XRP/USD is at a key point right now. It is above $2 and has dropped 2.1% in the last 24 hours. At the same time, five spot XRP ETFs are finishing their first full week of trading at the same time. The combination of institutional inflows, less liquidity on exchanges, and strange behavior in the derivative market is making a market structure that XRP has never seen before.
Spot XRP ETF Accumulation Drains Exchange Supply and Reshapes Liquidity
The most important thing that has affected XRP’s price is the quick exit of tokens from key exchanges. Vincent Van Code, an analyst, said that billions of XRP are going straight from exchanges like Binance, Upbit, and Kraken into ETF custodian wallets. This movement has changed the way the market works in a big way. Daily spot volume on exchanges has dropped from the $2–3 billion area to less than $1 billion.
The liquidity pressure has a big effect on how prices change. In the past, it took concentrated orders worth more than $200 million to move XRP’s price by 5–10%. Resistance walls or sell orders as small as $15 million can now cause price movements of 12–18% in just one hour. High-frequency trading companies, on the other hand, are helping to keep things stable by using arbitrage methods from the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF markets. This stops big price differences between the ETF and spot markets.
ETF holdings now have more than $687 million in assets, which is more than 300 million XRP tokens. There have been no outflows for 10 days in a row of trading. Bitwise recently added 80 million tokens to its stake, and 21Shares started its TOXR fund with a $500,000 seed basket. In little than a month, total inflows had gone above $660 million.
XRP Whale Accumulation and Unusual Derivative Signals Emerge
Blockchain data shows that big holdings are moving a lot. The top 10,000 wallets now hold 51.39 billion XRP, which is over 85% of the total supply. In just one day, 78 new wallets got 77.324 million XRP. One wallet alone got 35 million tokens. Another 246 wallets added 17.91 million XRP to their total balance, which suggests that they were all buying at the same time while the market was depressed.
There are strange indications coming from derivative markets. CoinGlass saw an unusual one-hour period with no short liquidations, and all $128,000 in losses came from long positions. This one-sided liquidation profile, which isn’t usual in busy futures markets, shows that traders are still highly positioned for upside even though the market as a whole is unclear.
XRP/USD Technical Analysis: Range-Bound Action with Breakout Potential
XRP is currently trading near the Murrey Math Lines pivot point, and the important $2.00 support level is being tested. The token fell below the 20-day exponential moving average at $2.18, which means that bears are still in charge of short-term momentum.
Analysts have found a bullish flag pattern building on the eight-hour period. This is usually a sign that prices will keep going up. If XRP breaks out successfully, it might go up to $2.73, which is the next significant barrier level. But if the support line of the falling channel doesn’t hold, the price might drop to $1.61, and it could drop even further to $1.25.
The month-end performance makes the technical setup more difficult. XRP closed November down more than 17%, while the rest of the market fell and Bitcoin dropped to $86,700.
XRP Price Prediction: Volatility Expected Before Potential $5 Target
A demand simulation model that looked at how ETF affect projects would have different results depending on how elastic the market was. The model uses baseline assumptions of 74.5 million XRP in daily ETF demand, 2.7 billion XRP in exchange supply, and 300 million XRP in monthly escrow releases. It says that low elasticity could quickly run out of exchange-held supply, while high elasticity could cause bigger price spikes as over-the-counter liquidity absorbs flows.
Jake Claver, the CEO of Digital Ascension Group, said that almost 800 million XRP in private OTC liquidity was used up during the first week of ETF accumulation. As these off-exchange channels get smaller, ETFs may have to get tokens from public exchanges, which might make prices more volatile.
Vincent Van Code says that XRP is still on course to reach $5, but traders should be ready for “air pockets” of up to 20% as the market adjusts to lower spot activity. Prediction markets show a mix of feelings: Kalshi says there is a 69% likelihood that XRP will have good returns at the end of 2025, and Polymarket says there is a 99% possibility that it will reach all-time highs by 2026.
The immediate trading range is still set by $2.00 support and $2.20 resistance, with $2.73 being the next big challenge. As December goes on, the balance between institutional accumulation, retail liquidity, and technical positioning will determine whether XRP can keep its high value or has to consolidate more.
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