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Forex Signals December 5: US PCE Inflation and Victoria’s Secret, Man U Earnings Preview
A mix of macro and corporate data as markets await the US PCE inflation alongside earnings from Manchester United and Victoria’s Secret.
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Last updated: Thursday, December 4, 2025
Quick overview
- Markets are awaiting the US PCE inflation data and earnings reports from Manchester United and Victoria's Secret.
- The U.S. dollar stabilized after early weakness, supported by rising Treasury yields and speculation about the next Federal Reserve chair.
- Crude oil prices found support despite bearish signals, aided by production limitations in Kazakhstan and OPEC under-delivery.
- Equity markets traded sideways, with the S&P 500 remaining largely unchanged while META outperformed due to reduced spending on virtual reality initiatives.
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MARKETS TREND
A pivotal mix of macro and corporate data as markets await the latest US PCE inflation alongside earnings from Manchester United and Victoria’s Secret.
Market Activity Shows Movement Without Major Surprises
While the trading session lacked any dramatic swings, it was far from uneventful. Initial jobless claims fell sharply, but the drop conflicted with recent employment indicators — including today’s — and was largely dismissed due to distortions from the U.S. holiday schedule. After a brief period of volatility, the market quickly discounted the data.
Dollar Stabilizes After Early Weakness
The U.S. dollar weakened early in the session before finding support near the London fix and gradually recovering. Rising Treasury yields offered additional strength, partly driven by renewed speculation that Kevin Hassett could be selected as the next Federal Reserve chair. The euro and Swiss franc softened through the day but remained confined to relatively narrow ranges, with moves capped at roughly 40 pips.
Oil Finds Support Despite Bearish Signals
Crude oil prices saw a modest lift even after Wednesday’s soft supply data and Saudi Arabia’s price cut. A report suggesting that a damaged terminal is limiting Kazakhstan’s production, along with survey data showing OPEC members under-delivering on output targets, helped spark a $1 intraday rally.
Equity Markets Trade Sideways
U.S. equities were choppy but held within a tighter band. As the session wound down, the S&P 500 hovered near unchanged after spending most of the day oscillating about 20 points in each direction. META outperformed sharply after announcing reduced spending on virtual reality and Metaverse initiatives.
Key Market Events to Watch Thursday
Earnings Calendar Today
A light but closely watched earnings slate features two high-profile names reporting before the market opens.
Victoria’s Secret & Co. (VSCO) — Q3 2025 Earnings
- Expected to post a loss of −0.62 per share, reflecting ongoing margin pressure and a still-challenging retail environment.
- Investors will watch for updates on store optimization efforts, digital sales performance, and progress in rebuilding brand momentum.
- Management commentary on inventory levels, promotional activity, and holiday-season expectations may influence near-term sentiment.
Manchester United plc (MANU) — Q1 2026 Earnings
- Forecast earnings stand at 0.06 per share, suggesting modest profitability as commercial income stabilizes.
- Key focus points include broadcast revenue trends, stadium investment plans, and whether ownership uncertainty is affecting financial visibility.
- Analysts will also look for clarity on squad spending, Champions League implications, and forward revenue guidance for the season.
Delay in Key US PCE Data
With the government shutdown ongoing, the September PCE and personal income/spending report is now scheduled for release on December 5. Other inflation indicators have already offered clues: September CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, while core CPI increased 0.2%. PPI figures showed a 0.3% gain, pushing annual producer inflation to 2.7%.
Components feeding into PCE showed mixed dynamics — stronger airline services pricing, declines in portfolio management, and increases in various healthcare categories. Pantheon Macroeconomics expects a subdued PCE reading of roughly 0.22% month-over-month, which would keep the core annual rate near 2.9%, supported by easing goods inflation and limited tariff pass-through.
Canada Awaits Its Latest Jobs Data
Canada’s upcoming employment report follows an exceptionally strong October release. Employment surged by 66.6k, far above expectations, driven by an 85k jump in part-time positions while full-time roles declined. The unemployment rate fell from 7.1% to 6.9%, again beating forecasts. Despite the strength, the numbers did little to shift expectations for the Bank of Canada, which maintains that policy is appropriately calibrated and is unlikely to ease further unless conditions deteriorate.
Gold Stocks to $4,200
Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate cut comments, as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. Earlier this month, gold jumped above $4.3800 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $4,004. The 20 daily SMA (gray) held as support last week and buyers returned and pushed XAU above $4,200K yesterday.
USD/JPY Returns to 150
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. However, the new BOJ governor the JPY has weakened and USD/JPY soared to 154 and we decided to close our buy signal for more than 80 pips.
USD/JPY – Weekly Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin breaks Above the 20 Daily SMA
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down below $105,000 before finding support at the 200 daily SMA (purple) and recovering above $115,000 but then fell toward $100K again. However over the weekend BTC started to rebound and the price climbed but reversed lower after finding resistance at the 20 daily SMA (gray) which was broken yesterday though.
BTC/USD – Daily Chart
Ethereum Rebounds Off Support
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. Last week we saw a dive below $2.700 but the 200 weekly SMA held as support and we’re seeing a rebound.
ETH/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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