Silver Price Prediction: Can XAG Clear $60 and Reach $65 as Fed Cuts Loom?
Silver heads into the new week with powerful momentum after shattering record highs, supported by tightening supply, robust demand, and an..
Quick overview
- Silver has gained significant momentum, reaching record highs due to tightening supply and strong demand.
- The metal's price surged past the $54.50 barrier, hitting a new record of $59.42, with expectations for further gains towards $60.
- Fundamental factors, including declining inventories and increased ETF demand, are supporting silver's bullish trend.
- Anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut adds to the positive outlook for silver, with macroeconomic conditions favoring continued price increases.
Live SILVER Chart
Silver heads into the new week with powerful momentum after shattering record highs, supported by tightening supply, robust demand, and an increasingly dovish Federal Reserve backdrop.
Silver Extends Its Lead as the Metals Market Star Performer
Silver continues to dominate the metals complex, accelerating into another week of gains after notching fresh all-time highs. The metal’s explosive breakout reflects a convergence of supportive forces—ranging from shrinking inventories to renewed investor appetite and expectations for additional U.S. rate cuts. With the bullish structure firmly in place, silver’s ascent has outpaced gold and most commodities, setting the stage for another test of the psychologically important $60 threshold.
Breakout Momentum Pushes Silver Into New Territory
The latest leg higher came as silver convincingly broke above the October peak at the $54.40–$54.50 region, a barrier that capped upside attempts for nearly two months. Once cleared, the move unleashed a surge of momentum, driving the price to a new record at $59.42 at the start of the week. With almost no historical resistance between current levels and $60, the path remains open for silver to extend its rally as the market prepares for another Federal Reserve rate cut.
Silver Chart Daily – The 50 SMA Acting As Support
The breakout also reinforced the trend structure that has guided silver since late October. Price continues to track an ascending trendline, and each corrective dip has been met with eager buying—evidence that bulls remain firmly in control.
Technical Structure Turns More Supportive
The daily chart offers a textbook bullish configuration. The 50-day Simple Moving Average has consistently acted as a launch point for rebounds, absorbing selling pressure and maintaining the integrity of the uptrend. Now that prices have cleared the $54.50 ceiling, that zone is expected to transform into a sturdy support level if a pullback occurs. For now, however, momentum remains strong, and buyers show little interest in stepping aside.
Supply Strains and Industrial Demand Amplify the Move
Fundamental drivers are amplifying the technical strength. Spot XAG/USD trades around $58.40, up more than 12% on the week and on pace for an eighth consecutive monthly advance. A key factor behind the surge is tightening physical supply: inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen to their lowest levels since 2015, while physical turnover on the Shanghai Gold Exchange has dropped to a nine-year low.
ETF demand has also accelerated dramatically. Holdings jumped by roughly 200 tons on December 3 alone, marking the strongest allocation since 2022. This is not speculative fast money—it is long-horizon institutional exposure entering at record highs, underscoring confidence in silver’s longer-term trajectory.
The declining inventory trend in Asia, combined with increased shipments through London, suggests that global supply chains remain strained, and traders are increasingly pricing in the potential for a more pronounced squeeze.
Macroeconomic Tailwinds Add Fuel to the Advance
This week’s cluster of central bank meetings adds another layer of anticipation. While the Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Canada, and Reserve Bank of Australia are all expected to keep rates steady, the Federal Reserve’s decision commands full market attention. Investors overwhelmingly expect another 25-basis-point cut—an inherently supportive backdrop for metals due to improved liquidity and lower real yields.
The tone of the Fed’s guidance may determine the near-term direction. A pause could cool enthusiasm temporarily, but any signal of continued easing into 2025 and 2026 would reinforce silver’s bullish outlook. Political developments add intrigue as well: reports that Kevin Hassett may replace Jerome Powell—and his known preference for deeper, faster cuts—have strengthened expectations of a more dovish policy environment.
Soft labor data has further cemented the market’s view. ADP reported a 32,000 decline in employment, Challenger layoffs surged above 71,000, and the delayed September payrolls reading, while slightly stronger, did little to dispel the narrative of a cooling labor market. These conditions heighten the probability of ongoing rate reductions—fueling silver’s next potential breakout above $60.
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