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Forex Signals Dec 12: Broadcom and Costco Post Strong Earnings, but AVGO Stock Tumbles
A spike in US unemployment claims put pressure on the currency, but strong earnings from Broadcom and Costco allowed the market to shift...
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Last updated: Friday, December 12, 2025
Quick overview
- The U.S. dollar weakened as jobless claims rose to 236K, surpassing expectations and raising concerns about labor-market cooling.
- Broadcom and Costco reported strong earnings, highlighting resilience in the AI and consumer sectors, respectively.
- Broadcom's revenue reached $18.02B, exceeding forecasts, while Costco's net sales grew to $66B, reflecting robust consumer spending.
- Attention now shifts to the UK GDP release, with expectations of a slight growth rebound amid a cautious economic outlook.
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MARKETS TREND
A spike in US unemployment claims put pressure on the currency, but strong earnings from Broadcom and Costco allowed the market to shift its emphasis back to corporate performance.
Dollar Weakens as Jobless Claims Jump
The U.S. dollar faced renewed pressure after the release of the latest Initial Jobless Claims, which swung sharply higher and undermined early-week optimism. After last week’s misleading drop to 191K—widely flagged as distorted by Thanksgiving seasonality—claims normalized and climbed to 236K, surpassing expectations of 220K.
The rebound not only corrected the prior week’s anomaly but also revived concerns about labor-market cooling, contributing to a softer tone across dollar pairs. Analysts noted that while the figure is not alarming on its own, it marks a turning point from the ultra-tight conditions seen earlier this year.
Broadcom and Costco Deliver Standout Results
On Thursday Broadcom and Costco delivered two of the most encouraging earnings reports of the week, each underscoring strength in essential market segments. Broadcom’s AI-driven growth and improving margins continue to validate its position as a key beneficiary of the ongoing data and infrastructure boom. Costco, meanwhile, reaffirmed its role as a bellwether for consumer stability, posting steady sales growth and rising membership revenue.
Broadcom (AVGO) Q3 CY2025 Earnings Summary
Broadcom continued to build momentum in the AI and infrastructure landscape, reporting a quarter that once again outpaced Wall Street projections.
Key Earnings Pointers:
- Revenue: $18.02B vs $17.49B expected (28.2% YoY, 3% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $1.95 vs $1.87 expected (4.3% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $12.22B vs $11.64B expected (67.8% margin, 5% beat)
- Q4 Revenue Guidance: $19.1B midpoint vs $18.29B expected
- Operating Margin: 41.7%, up from 32.9% last year
- Free Cash Flow Margin: 41.4%, up from 39%
- Inventory Days: Improved to 36 from 54
- Market Cap: $1.95T
Costco Starts Fiscal 2026 With Strong Momentum
Costco delivered another solid quarter as shoppers continued to spend and membership trends remained robust, signaling ongoing strength across its core customer base even amid a more challenging economic environment.
Key Earnings Pointers:
- Net Sales: $66B vs $61B YoY (8.2% growth)
- Membership Fees: $1.33B vs $1.17B YoY
- Online Sales: Showed double-digit growth
Key Market Events to Watch Friday: UK GDP Outlook
Attention now shifts to Friday’s UK GDP release, where October growth is expected to rise 0.2% M/M after September’s –0.1% decline. But even if the rebound materializes, economists note it is unlikely to influence the Bank of England’s upcoming policy decision.
A rate cut in December appears increasingly locked in. Cool inflation readings and a downgraded fiscal outlook have already shaped committee expectations, while October’s PMIs suggest the economy remains sluggish, with firms cautious ahead of the recent budget. As the BoE approaches terminal rate territory next year, debates within the MPC are likely to become even more finely balanced.
Gold Stays Above $4,200
Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate cut comments, as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. Earlier this month, gold jumped above $4.3800 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $4,004. The 20 daily SMA (gray) held as support last week and buyers returned and pushed XAU above $4,200K yesterday.
USD/JPY Returns Lower After the FOMC
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. However, the new BOJ governor the JPY has weakened and USD/JPY soared to 154 and we decided to close our buy signal for more than 80 pips as the pair found support at the 20 daily SMA (gray) and has rebounded more than 200 pips off that MA but reversed after the 25 bps rate cut from the FED.
USD/JPY – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
The 20 Daily SMA Turns Into Support for BTC
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down below $105,000 before finding support at the 200 daily SMA (purple) and recovering above $115,000 but then fell toward $100K again. However over the weekend BTC started to rebound and the price climbed but reversed lower after finding resistance at the 20 daily SMA (gray) which was broken yesterday though.
BTC/USD – Daily Chart
Ethereum Faces the 50 Daily SMA
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. Last week we saw a dive below $2.700 but the 200 weekly SMA held as support and we’re seeing a rebound but buyers face the 50 SMA (yellow) now.
ETH/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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