Ethereum Faces Critical $3,000 Test as $6 Billion Options Expiry and Whale Accumulation Signal Potential Breakout
Ethereum is trading above $2,900 as the huge $6 billion options expiration on Friday approaches. This is a key moment that might decide
Quick overview
- Ethereum is currently trading above $2,900 as a significant $6 billion options expiration approaches, which could determine market direction into 2025.
- Despite whale accumulation of over $2 billion, ETH has struggled to maintain prices above $3,400 for 40 days, raising concerns about prolonged bearish pressure.
- The options market shows a strong bias towards bears unless ETH can surpass $3,100 by the expiration deadline, with many call options likely to expire worthless.
- Technical analysis suggests that a close below $2,900 could lead to a retest of December's lows, while a rise above $3,100 could trigger a short squeeze.
Ethereum ETH/USD is trading above $2,900 as the huge $6 billion options expiration on Friday approaches. This is a key moment that might decide whether bulls or bears control ETH’s path into 2025. Even though whales have been buying up more than $2 billion worth of cryptocurrency in the last few days, the major smart contract platform has had trouble keeping prices over $3,400 for 40 days in a row. This has led to worries that bearish pressure may last longer than expected.
ETH Options Expiry Creates High-Stakes Battle at Key Price Levels
For Ethereum traders, the year-end options settlement is a very important turning point. There are 2.2 times as many call options as put options, however the distribution strongly favors bears unless ETH can break over $3,100 by the expiration time of 8:00 am UTC on Friday.
Laevitas.ch says that Deribit has 70% of all open interest, while the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has 20%. Most of the $4.1 billion in call options, on the other hand, are likely to expire worthless since traders had made big wagers that prices would rise to between $3,500 and $5,000 by the end of the year. These levels now seem impossible after November’s 28% drop.
Less than 15% of all call options were set at $3,000 or lower, which shows that bulls were too sure that Ethereum might break through the $3,400 resistance level. Fewer than 25% of call instruments were placed below $3,200, even if you don’t count the very optimistic strikes at $5,000 and higher.
ETH/USD Technical Analysis Points to Four Probable Scenarios
Based on current price movements, four main scenarios come up for Friday’s settlement: If ETH expires between $2,700 and $2,900, put instruments will have a $580 million edge. A settlement between $2,901 and $3,000 still gives bears $440 million more. The balanced result happens between $3,101 and $3,200, when neither side wins. Only if Ethereum rises to between $3,201 and $3,300 would call options enjoy a little $150 million edge.
A Friday close below $2,900 might make investors feel more worse and could cause a retest of December’s lows of $2,775. However, bulls still have a chance to push toward $3,100, which would even things up and put some space between them and recent support levels.
Ether Whale Accumulation Reaches $2 Billion Despite Price Compression
Onchain data shows that major holders are aggressively accumulating, which is the opposite of prudent options posture. Lookonchain said that the “66k ETH Borrow Whale” added 40,975 ETH ($121 million) in just 24 hours. Since November 4, the total amount bought has reached 569,247 ETH ($1.69 billion).
Corporate treasuries are also taking on a lot more risk. In just one day, Bitmine bought 67,886 ETH ($201 million), and in the preceding week, it bought over $302 million worth. The company now has 4.06 million ETH worth $12.4 billion, which is 3.37% of the total supply. Trend Research also bought 46,379 ETH this week, bringing its total holdings to over 580,000 ETH.
According to crypto researcher CW, Ether whales presently hold positions at cost bases that are similar to current market values, and their unrealized profits are almost nonexistent. “They didn’t take profits in this cycle, and they are further increasing their holdings.”
Leverage and Supply Dynamics Create Pressure Cooker Environment
Derivatives positioning gives Ethereum’s setup a new level. Hyblock Capital said that almost 70% of all net Ether positions on Binance are long during the last 30 days. Last week, ETH’s Estimated Leverage Ratio hit an all-time high of 0.611, which means that traders are using more leverage compared to exchange reserves.
At the same time, the exchange supply ratio of Ether on Binance has decreased to 0.032, which is the lowest level since September 2024. This drop in available supply on exchanges, along with record leverage and continued whale buying, suggests that any big move might get much bigger if the reduced liquidity around the $2,600 swing lows is cleared.
Ethereum Price Prediction: Critical $3,100 Level Determines Near-Term Direction
From a technical point of view, Ethereum is still stuck below the $3,000 mark, which is a psychological level, and the 200-period exponential moving average. This structure right now makes it more likely that prices will keep going down in the short run.
But the difference between tighter exchange supply, high leverage at record highs, and active whale accumulation of more than $2 billion suggests a lot of coiled energy. If bulls can push ETH above $3,100 by the end of Friday’s options expiration, it would cancel out bearish options posture and could even start a short squeeze because of the 70% net long positioning and lower exchange supply.
If the price doesn’t stay above $2,900 until Friday’s settlement, selling might pick up speed and head toward the December lows of $2,775 or possibly the $2,600 support zone. On the other hand, if prices break over $3,200, call options holders would benefit, and this might lead to a test of the $3,400 resistance that has kept prices down for 40 days.
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