Bitcoin Faces $95K Pain Point as $27B Options Expiry Shakes Crypto
The global cryptocurrency market has managed to edge its way back to the $3 trillion mark, despite some reservations...
Quick overview
- The global cryptocurrency market has reached the $3 trillion mark, but volatility remains high amid a significant options expiry of $27 billion.
- Bitcoin options worth $23.38 billion are set to expire, with a current put-call ratio indicating a defensive market posture.
- Key price levels for Bitcoin include $89,500 for potential upward movement and $85,000 as a critical support level.
- Ethereum's options expiry adds complexity, with a critical support level at $2950 and a bearish outlook for XRP.
The global cryptocurrency market has managed to edge its way back to the $3 trillion mark, despite some reservations about a possible year-end “Santa Claus” rally. But what’s going on under the surface is a whole different story – market volatility is still up there, as traders struggle to make sense of the biggest options expiry of the year – an eye-watering $27 billion for major digital assets.
Bitcoin takes centre stage here – roughly 262,000 of its options are set to expire on December 26, worth a whopping $23.38 billion. Although the overall put-call ratio is low at 0.33, the short-term data is more alarming. Over the last 24 hours, puts have been dominating calls, pushing the ratio to 1.72 – that’s pretty clear evidence of a defensive posture in this holiday market.
Bitcoin Signals Mixed, Not Capitulation
Options desks are saying that rollover trades are dominating the volumes right now – which is great for making our lives as analysts more complicated – but not exactly the kind of clear-cut signal we’re looking for when it comes to gauging the direction of the market. When we see Bitcoin’s max pain level at $95,000, well above its current price of $89,000, that can sometimes mean the price ends up gravitating towards that level. However, it’s worth noting that there’s a lot of put concentration in the $80,000 to $90,000 range, which probably means there’s a lot of resistance waiting at $90,000.
Key technical markers that are currently on everyone’s radar:
- $89,500: If Bitcoin can close above this mark, then it might open the door to $100,000.
- $85,000: On the other hand, if it breaks through below that level, losses could accelerate to $80,000.
- 200-day moving average (4-hour chart): continues to be that looming figure that caps upside momentum, for now.
For now, though, Bitcoin is stuck in limbo – and it’s going to be the big institutional flows after the expiry of all these options that will likely dictate the next big move.
Ethereum, XRP, and Solana in Focus
Ethereum’s options expiry has only complicated things – we’ve got about 1.27 million ETH options worth $3.77 billion about to roll off, with the put-call ratio rising to 1.26. The max pain level of $3000 is only above the current spot price of $2978, so $2950 is a critical support level for now.
- Ethereum: There was a 30% jump in trading volume, which might actually be a tactical rebound rather than the start of a trend reversal.
- XRP: Options skew remains bearish, suggesting that if $1.80 doesn’t hold, we could see a potential slide to $1.10.
- Solana: As for Solana, it’s neutral all the way – and its max pain level of $180 actually suggests it’s still got some room for recovery, after stabilizing around $123.
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