BTC Price Prediction: Looking to Buy Bitcoin After Retreat as Long-Term Buyers Offset Silver Rotation
While investors are drawn to conventional safe havens such as gold and silver, Bitcoin maintains a steady demand above $80,000, sustaining..
Quick overview
- Bitcoin maintains strong demand above $80,000, with a long-term outlook towards $100,000 supported by recent market behavior.
- Long-term holders have resumed accumulation, indicating renewed confidence in Bitcoin's value despite short-term volatility.
- Institutional participation continues to stabilize the market, reducing the risk of selloffs and reinforcing Bitcoin's role as a store of value.
- Recent policy developments in the U.S. have improved the macro backdrop for Bitcoin, contributing to a more constructive market environment.
Live BTC/USD Chart
While investors are drawn to conventional safe havens such as gold and silver, Bitcoin maintains a steady demand above $80,000, sustaining the long-term prospect of reaching $100,000.
Bitcoin Absorbs Volatility Without Losing Its Footing
Bitcoin has entered a period of consolidation following several weeks of heightened volatility across global markets. While short-term price action remains choppy, the broader trend suggests stability rather than weakness. Repeated tests of the $80,000–$85,000 region have attracted buyers, reinforcing this zone as a key area of demand.
This behaviour marks an important evolution in Bitcoin’s market structure. Instead of the sharp collapses that defined earlier cycles, recent pullbacks have been met with accumulation. Long-term participants appear increasingly willing to step in during periods of uncertainty, helping to dampen downside momentum.
Long-Term Holders Quietly Re-Enter the Market
One of the more encouraging signals has emerged from on-chain data. The “Hodler Net Position Change” metric, which tracks wallets holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days, turned positive on December 26 for the first time since late September.
Long-term holders added approximately 3,784 BTC, a meaningful shift after nearly three months of distribution. These participants typically do not trade short-term fluctuations. Their return to accumulation suggests renewed conviction that current levels offer attractive long-term value.
This shift has coincided with continued strength in spot Bitcoin ETFs, which collectively manage roughly $113.5–$113.8 billion in assets. Persistent ETF holdings reinforce the idea that institutional and long-horizon investors remain committed despite near-term uncertainty.
High-Profile Forecasts Reinforce the Long-Term Narrative
Optimism has also been reinforced by influential voices within the industry. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes has reiterated a bold outlook, arguing that Bitcoin could eventually push toward $200,000 before settling into a higher structural range above $120,000.
His thesis centers on global liquidity dynamics and what he describes as the Federal Reserve’s “Reserve Management Purchases,” a mechanism he views as a modern form of balance-sheet expansion. While his price targets remain debated, the underlying message resonates: persistent liquidity creation and currency debasement continue to strengthen the case for scarce digital assets.
Such projections, even if aggressive, help anchor expectations around Bitcoin’s role as a long-term store of value rather than a purely speculative instrument.
Institutional Participation Continues to Anchor Confidence
Institutional involvement remains one of the most stabilising forces in the current cycle. Strategy’s executive chairman, Michael Saylor, recently reignited market speculation with messaging widely interpreted as a signal of further Bitcoin accumulation.
Strategy currently holds more than 671,000 BTC—valued at roughly $59 billion—making it one of the largest corporate holders globally. The presence of such deeply capitalised participants reduces the risk of disorderly selloffs, as these entities are less likely to be forced sellers during periods of volatility.
This dynamic stands in contrast to earlier cycles dominated by leverage-heavy retail participation, where downturns were often amplified by cascading liquidations.
November’s Shakeout Reset Market Positioning
November marked a turning point for Bitcoin and the broader crypto complex. A sharp liquidation event erased close to $1 trillion in total market value, briefly dragging Bitcoin below $81,000 and triggering widespread fear.
However, the selloff proved self-limiting. Buyers emerged decisively near the $80,000 level, driving prices back toward $90,000 and restoring stability. Since then, each revisit of this zone has been met with steady demand, suggesting that large players view these levels as attractive entry points.
This reset may ultimately prove constructive, flushing out excess leverage and leaving behind a healthier market structure.
Technical Structure Remains Supportive
From a charting perspective, Bitcoin’s longer-term technical framework remains intact. On the weekly timeframe, price briefly slipped below the 50-week Simple Moving Average but failed to trigger sustained downside follow-through.
BTC/USD Chart Weekly – Rebounding Off the 100 SMA
Instead, the 100-week SMA absorbed selling pressure, acting as a reliable anchor during the correction. This level has historically served as an important reference point during bull-market consolidations.
BTC/USD Chart Monthly – The 20 SMA Still Holding
On the monthly chart, BITCOIN continues to trade above the 20-month SMA—a level closely associated with accumulation phases in prior cycles. The absence of new lower lows further supports the view that the market is consolidating rather than breaking down.
Mining Economics Add Short-Term Friction, Not Structural Risk
Bitcoin’s price currently trades near the estimated average production cost of approximately $94,000. This has placed pressure on higher-cost mining operations, some of which may need to sell portions of their holdings to manage operating expenses.
That said, miners appear to exert less influence over price than in previous cycles. Institutional flows, ETF demand, and long-term holder behaviour now play a more significant role in shaping market direction, limiting the impact of miner-related selling.
Policy Developments Improve the Macro Backdrop
Political and regulatory developments in the United States have further improved sentiment. Following President Trump’s return to office, several restrictive measures have been rolled back, enforcement actions reduced, and a strategic Bitcoin reserve introduced.
Progress on stablecoin legislation has also added clarity, reinforcing the perception that digital assets are becoming increasingly integrated into the financial system. While crypto was absent from the latest national security strategy, the overall policy environment appears more constructive than in previous years.
Outlook: Consolidation With an Upside Bias
Bitcoin’s current phase reflects digestion rather than decline. With long-term holders returning to accumulation, institutional participation remaining strong, and macro conditions gradually improving, the market appears to be laying the groundwork for its next move.
While short-term volatility is likely to persist—especially as attention shifts toward precious metals—the structural case for Bitcoin remains intact. As long as the $80,000 support zone continues to hold, the $100,000 milestone remains a realistic medium-term objective rather than a distant aspiration.
Bitcoin Live Chart
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