Gold Price Forecast: $4,640 Peak Holds as CPI Looms and Bulls Defend $4,550
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have eased after failing to extend last session’s rally, briefly slipping to an intraday low near $4,575.
Quick overview
- Gold prices have pulled back after reaching a record high of $4,630, briefly dipping to around $4,575 due to profit-taking and a stronger US dollar.
- Despite the recent decline, gold's overall trend remains positive, supported by macroeconomic uncertainty and consistent demand for safe-haven assets.
- The US dollar's recovery and upcoming inflation data are influencing gold's price dynamics, with expectations of a 0.3% rise in December CPI.
- Geopolitical tensions continue to provide a safety net for gold prices, maintaining support above critical technical levels.
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have eased after failing to extend last session’s rally, briefly slipping to an intraday low near $4,575. The pullback follows a fresh record high at $4,630, with profit-taking emerging as equities firmed and the US dollar regained strength ahead of key inflation data.
That pause, however, doesn’t signal a breakdown. Gold’s broader trend remains constructive, supported by lingering macro uncertainty and steady demand for defensive assets. Even as prices drift lower in the short term, buyers have shown a willingness to step in on dips, keeping downside pressure contained.
Dollar Strength and CPI Expectations Pressure Gold
The US dollar has stabilized after recent volatility tied to concerns over Federal Reserve independence. While political noise initially weakened the greenback and lifted safe-haven assets, markets have since priced in much of that risk, allowing the dollar to recover modestly.
Attention is now firmly on US inflation data. December CPI is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, with annual headline and core inflation holding near 2.7%. Any upside surprise could delay rate-cut expectations, offering short-term support to the dollar and limiting gold’s immediate upside.
Key macro forces shaping gold in the near term:
- A firmer dollar as CPI expectations stabilize
- Ongoing uncertainty around US monetary policy
- Rate-cut timing remaining sensitive to inflation data
Geopolitical Risk Keeps a Floor Under Prices
Despite the recent pullback, global tensions continue to underpin gold. Ongoing geopolitical stress has reinforced gold’s role as a hedge against uncertainty, helping prices hold above key technical levels even as momentum cools.
Rather than triggering panic buying, these risks are acting as a steady source of background demand, reducing the likelihood of a deeper correction unless macro conditions shift decisively.
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook: Bullish Structure Still in Control
From a technical perspective, gold remains firmly constructive. On the 2-hour chart, price continues to trade within a rising channel in place since late December. The retreat from the $4,640 high appears corrective, with consolidation holding above former resistance turned support in the $4,550–$4,580 zone.
Higher highs and higher lows remain intact, while RSI has eased from overbought territory toward the mid-50s, signaling consolidation rather than trend exhaustion. As long as price holds above channel support, the broader bullish structure remains valid.
Trade idea
- Buy pullbacks near: $4,550
- Upside targets: $4,680–$4,720
- Invalidation level: Below $4,500
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