Silver Price Forecast: $86.25 Holds as CPI at 2.7% Sets Volatility Stage
Markets are entering a pivotal US trading session with inflation data firmly in focus. The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release...
Quick overview
- Markets are focused on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, with expectations for a 0.3% month-on-month rise.
- ADP employment data and New Home Sales will also be released, but CPI is expected to be the main market driver.
- Silver prices are showing resilience, trading within a rising channel and holding above key support levels.
- Key technical levels for silver include resistance at $86.25 and support at $83.35, with potential for bullish continuation.
Markets are entering a pivotal US trading session with inflation data firmly in focus. The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release at 6:30pm is expected to show headline and core CPI rising 0.3% month-on-month, while annual CPI is forecast to remain steady at 2.7%. With rate expectations already finely balanced, even a small deviation from forecasts could ripple quickly through currencies, precious metals, and broader risk assets.
Earlier in the session, ADP employment data, forecast at 11.5K, will offer a preliminary read on labor market momentum. While ADP rarely drives sustained moves on its own, an upside or downside surprise could influence short-term US dollar positioning heading into CPI. Later, New Home Sales, expected at 716K, will shed light on the rate-sensitive housing sector, though its market impact is likely to remain secondary unless the data significantly misses expectations.
For traders, the message is clear: CPI is the dominant catalyst, and positioning across metals and FX remains cautious ahead of the release.
XAG/USD
Silver Holds Firm as CPI Approaches
Against this macro backdrop, silver prices are showing notable resilience. Silver (XAG/USD) continues to trade within a well-defined rising channel on the 2-hour chart, reflecting steady bullish control since late December. The recent pause below the $86.25 high appears corrective rather than impulsive, closely mirroring gold’s consolidation as markets await fresh inflation signals.
Structurally, the market remains constructive. Price is holding above former resistance turned support near $83.35, which has become a key short-term pivot. The ascending trendline continues to attract dip buyers, suggesting profit-taking is being absorbed rather than triggering a broader unwind.
Technical Levels to Watch in XAG/USD
Momentum has cooled modestly, with RSI easing from overbought levels toward the high-60s, signaling consolidation rather than trend exhaustion. From a price-action perspective, silver remains positioned for continuation if CPI volatility favors precious metals.
Key technical levels include:
- Upside resistance: $86.25, followed by $88.70 and $91.90
- Immediate support: $83.35
- Trendline support: near $79.15
A sustained break above $86.25 would likely confirm bullish continuation, while a decisive loss of $83.35 would weaken the short-term structure without necessarily invalidating the broader uptrend.
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