Daily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin Falls Below $90K, Ethereum Shows First Buy Signal in Three Years
Bitcoin investors recorded net realized losses over the past 30 days for the first time since late 2023, as newly minted whale investors
Quick overview
- Bitcoin investors have experienced net realized losses for the first time since late 2023, with new whale investors now controlling more capital than long-term holders.
- Ethereum's derivatives market has shown a bullish signal as net taker volume turned positive for the first time in nearly three years, indicating renewed institutional interest.
- The cryptocurrency market is under pressure as Bitcoin struggles to maintain the $90,000 level, while geopolitical tensions have driven investors towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
- Regulatory changes are on the horizon, with the CFTC preparing to take on more responsibilities in overseeing digital assets following the appointment of a new senior adviser.
Bitcoin BTC/USD investors recorded net realized losses over the past 30 days for the first time since late 2023, as newly minted whale investors holding over 1,000 BTC now control more capital than long-term holders and face $6 billion in unrealized losses. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s ETH/USD derivatives market flashed a rare bullish signal as net taker volume turned positive for the first time in nearly three years, suggesting renewed institutional interest despite short-term selling pressure.
Crypto Market Developments
The cryptocurrency market was under more pressure this week because Bitcoin couldn’t hold the $90,000 level as more and more whale investors sold. The market is changing because conventional safe-haven assets like gold have risen beyond $4,700 per ounce for the first time. This is because rising geopolitical tensions have caused money to move away from digital assets.
Changes in regulations were a bright area for the industry, on the other hand. Michael Selig, head of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said that Michael Passalacqua would be the new senior adviser. He said this was because Passalacqua has a lot of experience with crypto asset regulatory issues. Passalacqua used to work for the multinational law firm Simpson Thacher & Bartlett. He helped write a letter that got the Securities and Exchange Commission to permit state-chartered trust businesses function as crypto custodians. The appointment shows that the CFTC is getting ready to take on more duties in overseeing digital assets. New Senate legislation is anticipated to give the commission a lot more power over crypto markets.
In the memecoin space, Pump.fun made a big change to its main business by starting Pump Fund, a new investment arm that was funded by a $3 million hackathon. The project will give $250,000 to each of 12 initiatives, for a total of $10 million. This is the platform’s first big move to diversify after trading volumes on the memecoin launchpad dropped from their peak in early 2025.
Bitcoin Tests $88,000: More Losses Ahead?
According to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, Bitcoin investors have been losing money overall for the previous 30 days. The rolling 30-day realized profit and loss statistic fell below zero, which means that coins that were moved onchain during this time were sold for less than what they were bought for. This is the first time since October 2023 that this has happened, ending a period of more than two years of realized earnings. The statistic shows real selling activity instead of paper losses, which means that those who bought at higher prices are really feeling the need to sell.
There has been a big change in the makeup of Bitcoin holders. New whales, which are addresses that own more than 1,000 BTC and have unspent transaction outputs that are less than 155 days old, now make up a bigger part of Bitcoin’s market value than long-term holders. These recent big purchases have a realized price of about $98,000, which means they have almost $6 billion in unrealized losses right now because Bitcoin is trading below $90,000. Long-term holders with a cost basis close to $40,000, on the other hand, are mostly passive, thus short-term price changes are caused by capital under pressure rather than by seasoned investors’ conviction.
The flow of exchange data supports the bearish view in the short term. The exchange whale ratio has shot up to between 0.52 and 0.55, which means that big transactions are driving Bitcoin inflows. This is usually an indication of selling or moving money around. There was more than $300 million in selling pressure below $91,000, and negative delta clusters signal that people are aggressively shorting the stock. Technical indicators show a similar level of caution, as Bitcoin is trading below both the 21-day and 12-week exponential moving averages and has broken several previous higher lows. If the current distribution pressure keeps up, analysts say the $85,000 to $86,000 region is a plausible target, especially if Bitcoin can’t get back into the $95,000 to $98,000 zone.
Ethereum Market Flashes Buy Signals
There has been a big structural change in Ethereum’s derivatives market, which could mean that institutional traders are feeling differently. For the first time in over three years, net taker volume has turned positive. Since January 6, there has been a purchase imbalance of around $390 million, which is the greatest positive reading since January 2023. This statistic shows if traders are aggressively purchasing at market prices or selling into bids. When the readings stay positive for a long time, it usually means that traders are convinced and setting themselves for the trend to continue instead of just short-term momentum.
This change makes more sense when you look at Ethereum’s past net taker volume patterns. Since 2020, big positive flips in this statistic have always happened at the bottom of a range or at the beginning of an uptrend, not at the top. The change comes after years of constant selling pressure on the derivatives market, which means that leveraged participants’ demand for futures has changed. In the past, comparable changes happened before multi-week trend expansions, but just because something happened in the past doesn’t mean it will happen again.
Even if the derivatives signal was positive, Ethereum is facing short-term problems because the cumulative volume delta stayed negative at -3,676 ETH on Monday. This means that there was short-term selling pressure even though the asset was trading close to $3,000. The 30-day correlation between price and CVD is 0.62, which means that price action still gets some support from available liquidity. This difference signals a corrective phase in which short-term traders take profits and larger traders slowly move their holdings to other positions.
From a technical point of view, Ethereum has gone back to its five-month point of control between $3,050 and $3,140. The overall uptrend will stay in place as long as daily closures stay above the important $3,000 support level. According to liquidity statistics, there are about $540 million in net long positions near $3,100 and another $500 million below $3,000. This means that Ethereum may continue to move around in this area as traders adjust their holdings and take in the current price activity.
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