Anglo American Benefits from Copper Optimism and Cost Focus, JSE: AGL Share Price Nears Record
Anglo American shares pushed higher as investors reassessed miners as a barometer for growth, geopolitics, and metals demand, with copper...
Quick overview
- Anglo American shares rose approximately 5.5% amid a cautious market, reflecting investor optimism about miners as indicators of growth and geopolitical risk.
- The mining sector's sentiment improved following Rio Tinto's strong quarterly results, reinforcing confidence in operational execution and supply discipline.
- Anglo American is focusing on copper and iron ore outlooks while preparing for its fourth-quarter results and dividend announcement in February.
- The company is undergoing a strategic realignment, including a merger with Teck Resources and a divestment from platinum group metals, to enhance its portfolio towards future-facing commodities.
Anglo American shares pushed higher as investors reassessed miners as a barometer for growth, geopolitics, and metals demand, with copper strategy and operational execution back in focus.
Shares Rise Despite a Cautious Market Backdrop
Anglo American shares advanced around 5.5% to R742 on Wednesday, moving the stock closer to its recent highs even as broader risk sentiment remained fragile. The rally stood out against a generally cautious equity environment, where geopolitical uncertainty and renewed trade tensions have weighed on global markets.
Mining stocks have increasingly become a real-time gauge of investor sentiment, reflecting both growth expectations and geopolitical risk. In recent sessions, safe-haven demand for metals has spilled over into diversified miners, offering support even as equity indices struggled. Comments from U.S. President Donald Trump around tariffs linked to Greenland unsettled markets, dragging London’s benchmark lower as investors reassessed the risk of another escalation in trade tensions.
Sector Support from Rio Tinto’s Results
Sentiment across the mining sector received an additional lift following Rio Tinto’s latest quarterly production update, which exceeded expectations for both iron ore and copper. The results reinforced confidence that supply discipline and operational execution remain intact among major producers.
According to Barrenjoey analyst Glyn Lawcock, attention is now shifting decisively toward cost control and delivery rather than headline volumes alone. He described the quarter as solid, noting that investors are increasingly focused on how miners manage expenses and capital allocation in an environment where commodity prices are supportive but volatile. For Anglo American, this backdrop provides a constructive setting as the market looks ahead to more detailed updates in February.
Anglo American’s Exposure to Key Metals
For Anglo American, investor focus remains firmly on the outlook for copper and iron ore, and on whether tariff rhetoric ultimately translates into weaker end-demand. The company’s exposure spans South African iron ore through Kumba Iron Ore, alongside significant copper operations across the Americas.
This geographic and commodity mix leaves Anglo sensitive to shifts in global steel demand, particularly from China, while also positioning it to benefit from longer-term structural demand for copper tied to electrification and energy transition themes. As a result, the stock has become a focal point for investors seeking exposure to both cyclical recovery and secular growth.
Earnings and Dividend Milestones Ahead
Anglo American is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2025 results and final dividend announcement on February 20. Management has already confirmed that the update will include details on the final payout, with shareholders set to vote on the dividend at the annual general meeting on April 29.
These upcoming milestones add another layer of interest for investors, particularly those assessing income alongside growth. Dividend clarity will be closely watched in light of the company’s ongoing portfolio restructuring and capital reallocation toward priority metals.
Mixed Production Trends in the Third Quarter
The company’s most recent third-quarter production report underscored the complexity of its operational landscape. Copper output declined 9% year to date, though Anglo maintained its full-year guidance, signaling confidence in a recovery later in the cycle. At the same time, management raised its iron ore production outlook, pointing to improving performance at key assets.
Performance across the portfolio was uneven. Manganese and diamonds delivered solid gains, while iron ore and coal volumes declined during the quarter. These mixed results reflect the short-term impact of restructuring initiatives, which have weighed on volumes but are intended to strengthen the business over the long run.
CEO Duncan Wanblad described the quarter as operationally robust, highlighting improved grades and performance at Quellaveco and Los Bronces. These gains helped offset weaker output at Collahuasi, which is expected to recover toward the end of 2026. In iron ore, strong execution at both Kumba and Minas-Rio supported the decision to lift full-year guidance following a successful pipeline inspection in Brazil.
Strategic Realignment and Corporate Activity
Beyond production, Anglo American continues to reshape its portfolio. The company announced plans to merge with Canada’s Teck Resources, a move designed to create a copper-heavy global mining group aligned with energy transition demand. The proposed transaction underscores Anglo’s strategic pivot toward future-facing commodities.
At the same time, Anglo completed its exit from platinum group metals by selling its remaining stake in Valterra Platinum for $2.5 billion. While the divestment briefly pressured the share price, the market response to Valterra’s standalone debut suggests growing confidence in both companies’ strategic paths.
Innovation and Digital Risk Management
Operational innovation remains another underappreciated theme. Anglo American’s initiative to digitize geotechnical risk management at its Barro Alto nickel operation in Brazil represents a significant shift away from fragmented, manual processes. By integrating data and modeling, the company aims to improve safety, reliability, and decision-making across complex mining environments.
Stock Technical Outlook: Momentum Turning Upward
Technically, Anglo American’s share price appears to be breaking out of a 3-year pullback. On the monthly chart, the stock found strong support around R400, rebounding off the 100 SMA (green) and pushing decisively above the 50 SMA (yellow)—a move which signaled the bullish reversal and now ANGJ share price is heading for all time highs of R836.
ANGJ Chart Monthly – Resuming the Uptrend
On the weekly chart, a breakout above the 200 SMA (purple) and the descending trend line from 2023 further confirm the trend change. Following the upside price action after the Q3 results, the broader technical structure suggests renewed buying momentum and a possible continuation higher in the months ahead.
ANGJ Chart Weekly – The 20o SMA Has Turned Into Support
Q3 2025 Production Overview
Mixed output trends show strength in manganese and diamonds, but weakness in coal and iron ore.
Simplified Portfolio Performance
Copper:
- Q3 2025: 184 kt, up 1% from 181 kt in Q3 2024
- YTD 2025: 526 kt, down 9% from 575 kt last year
- Slight quarterly recovery but weaker year-to-date output due to operational challenges.
Iron Ore:
- Q3 2025: 14.3 Mt, down 9% from 15.7 Mt
- YTD 2025: 45.7 Mt, down 2%
- Lower production driven by logistics bottlenecks and maintenance work.
Manganese Ore:
- Q3 2025: 973 kt, up 140% from 406 kt
- YTD 2025: 2,067 kt, up 34%
- Strong rebound reflecting improved mine productivity and higher demand.
- Exiting Businesses
Diamonds:
- Q3 2025: 7.7 Mct, up 38% from 5.6 Mct
- YTD 2025: 17.9 Mct, down 5%
- Quarterly boost from improved grades, though annual output remains softer.
Steelmaking Coal:
- Q3 2025: 1.9 Mt, down 54% from 4.1 Mt
- YTD 2025: 6.2 Mt, down 49%
- Sharp decline amid divestment process and weaker export volumes.
Nickel:
- Q3 2025: 10.1 kt, up 2%
- YTD 2025: 29.4 kt, unchanged
- Stable performance, with modest gains offset by maintenance downtime.
Conclusion: Confidence in Transformation Amid Transition
Anglo American’s recent share price strength reflects renewed confidence in its copper-led strategy, improving operational execution, and supportive sector dynamics. While near-term risks remain tied to geopolitics and demand uncertainty, the company’s diversified asset base and strategic focus position it to navigate volatility more effectively than many peers.
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