Gold Price Forecast: $4,800 Holds as $5,400 Target Enters 2026 Playbook
Gold is trading near $4,799, pausing after one of its strongest multi-week rallies in years. While short-term momentum has cooled...
Quick overview
- Gold is currently trading around $4,799 after a significant multi-week rally, with major institutions raising long-term price targets.
- Goldman Sachs has increased its end-2026 gold price forecast to $5,400, citing strong demand from central banks and private investors.
- Technical analysis indicates that gold's recent pause is a consolidation phase rather than a reversal, with key support levels identified.
- The outlook remains positive for gold's long-term trajectory, with institutional forecasts and central bank demand suggesting continued upward momentum.
Gold is trading near $4,799, pausing after one of its strongest multi-week rallies in years. While short-term momentum has cooled, the bigger picture is becoming clearer: major institutions are raising long-term targets just as price consolidates above key structural levels. The question for traders and investors alike is no longer whether gold is in an uptrend, but how far this cycle can realistically extend into 2026.
Goldman Raises the Bar to $5,400
The long-term case strengthened this week after Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce, up from $4,900 previously. According to Reuters, the revision reflects persistent buying from emerging-market central banks and private investors diversifying away from fiat exposure. Spot gold has already climbed more than 11% in 2026, following a 64% surge last year, signaling that demand remains structural rather than speculative.
Goldman also expects central banks to average around 60 tonnes of gold purchases in 2026, reinforcing the idea that gold is increasingly treated as a reserve asset rather than a tactical hedge. Other major banks, including Citi and JPMorgan, are now clustering forecasts between $5,000 and $5,100, underscoring a rare consensus forming around higher long-term prices. Goldman Sachs raises 2026-end g…
What the Chart Is Saying Near $4,800
From a technical perspective, gold’s pause looks controlled. On the 2-hour chart, price stalled just below the $4,860–$4,880 resistance zone, aligning with the 2.618 Fibonacci extension near $4,818. The pullback has produced smaller candlesticks with shallow wicks, a classic sign of consolidation rather than distribution.
Price continues to respect a rising trendline from early January and remains comfortably above the 1.618 Fibonacci level near $4,710, which has now become the market’s first meaningful support. Below that, secondary support sits near $4,670 and $4,576, where the 200-period moving average converges with prior structure.
Momentum has reset as well. The Relative Strength Index has eased back toward neutral after flashing overbought conditions earlier in the rally, reducing downside pressure without breaking the trend.
Outlook: Consolidation Before Continuation
Taken together, gold’s current behavior looks less like a top and more like a pause within a broader expansion phase. As long as price holds above trendline support, the technical bias favors another attempt toward $4,860, followed by a potential extension toward $4,925 and beyond if momentum rebuilds.
With institutional forecasts pushing toward $5,400 and central bank demand showing little sign of slowing, gold’s long-term trajectory remains tilted higher, even if short-term volatility persists.
Trade idea: Buy pullbacks near $4,720, target $4,860, stop below $4,660.
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