Bitcoin Price: BTC Stops at Reckoning Zone, Will the 2025 Pattern Repeat Again?
Bitcoin has entered 2026 under pressure, but beneath the surface, long-term holders and institutional capital may be quietly rebuilding...
Quick overview
- Bitcoin starts 2026 under pressure, with long-term holders and institutional capital potentially setting the stage for future growth.
- Despite a recent decline below $80,000, Bitcoin has found support around the $75,000 level, which could determine its next major price movement.
- ETF inflows have surged, indicating renewed institutional interest, particularly through BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, which has absorbed a significant portion of new demand.
- Long-term holders are returning to accumulation, suggesting confidence in Bitcoin's value despite current market volatility.
Live BTC/USD Chart
Bitcoin has entered 2026 under pressure, but beneath the surface, long-term holders and institutional capital may be quietly rebuilding the foundation for the next advance.
Bitcoin Opens 2026 Under Renewed Pressure
As 2026 gets underway, Bitcoin’s market structure is undergoing a noticeable transition. Long-term holders continue to dominate supply, institutional participation remains elevated, and underlying demand has proven resilient. Yet despite these supportive forces, price action has weakened. Bitcoin slipped below the $80,000 level in recent weeks, with selling pressure intensifying as macro uncertainty crept back into markets.
For now, the decline has stalled near a familiar zone. The long-term support and resistance band around $75,000 — a defining level throughout 2025 — has once again absorbed selling pressure. Whether this area becomes a durable base or gives way to deeper losses will likely define the tone of the next major move.
A Technical Breakdown Raises Short-Term Risks
Bitcoin began the year on relatively solid footing. Early January saw BTC reclaim territory above $98,000 after bouncing from its 100-week simple moving average (SMA), a level that had provided reliable support for much of the previous cycle. That recovery, however, proved short-lived.
Selling accelerated into late January, pushing Bitcoin decisively below the 100-week SMA for the first time since 2023. From a technical perspective, this is a meaningful development. The loss of such a long-term trend indicator often signals a transition phase rather than a straightforward continuation of the uptrend.
BTC/USD Chart Weekly – Bitcoin Broke Below the 100 SMA
The decline ultimately found support near $75,000 — the same zone that marked the cycle low in 2025. This area now represents a critical inflection point. A sustained break below it would expose downside toward $65,000 and potentially the psychologically significant $50,000 level. Conversely, a successful defense could open the door to a recovery back toward $100,000 and, over time, the $120,000–$126,000 region.
Macro and Political Overhangs Add Volatility
Part of the recent weakness has been linked to renewed uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy. Markets have been digesting the implications of Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair when Powell’s term ends in May. While Warsh’s public comments have not been overtly hawkish, traders appear to be treating his potential leadership as a shift toward tighter policy bias.
At the same time, regulatory developments in Washington remain unresolved. A bill advancing through the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee would place spot cryptocurrency markets under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. While the move could eventually provide regulatory clarity, the proposal still lacks sufficient bipartisan backing. Senator Cory Booker recently noted that negotiations are “almost in the red zone,” underscoring the uncertainty hanging over the sector.
Together, these macro and policy factors have contributed to cautious positioning and heightened sensitivity to downside breaks.
ETF Flows Hint at a Demand Revival
Despite the pressure in spot prices, one of the most encouraging signals has emerged from the ETF market. After seeing net outflows in December, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a sharp reversal in January.
Month-to-date, ETFs have attracted roughly $1.2 billion in net inflows. The weekly data is even more striking. During the January 12–16 trading week, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1.42 billion in net inflows — the strongest weekly intake in nearly three months and a dramatic swing from the prior week’s $681 million outflow.
Several individual sessions posted exceptionally strong demand, including one day with inflows exceeding $840 million. By the end of that week, total assets held by U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had climbed to about $124.6 billion, while cumulative inflows since launch approached $58 billion.
These figures suggest that large allocators have returned decisively, even as price action remains under pressure.
BlackRock’s IBIT Tightens the Supply Screws
Within the ETF complex, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has emerged as the dominant institutional gateway. During the $1.42 billion inflow week, IBIT alone accounted for approximately $1.04 billion — nearly three-quarters of total ETF inflows.
This concentration matters. Institutions appear increasingly comfortable channeling Bitcoin exposure through a single, highly liquid, tightly priced vehicle. Each new IBIT share effectively removes Bitcoin from the freely tradable supply, locking it into a regulated structure designed for long-term holding.
As total ETF assets push further above $120 billion and IBIT continues to absorb the bulk of new demand, marginal inflows are likely to have an outsized impact on supply-demand dynamics over time.
Network Strength Reinforces the Scarcity Narrative
Beyond price and flows, Bitcoin’s underlying network fundamentals continue to strengthen. Mining difficulty and hashrate reached new records throughout 2025, reflecting sustained investment and long-term confidence among miners.
In October, Bitcoin’s seven-day average hashrate surpassed the symbolic milestone of 1 zettahash per second, later rising toward approximately 1.15 ZH/s. This increase in computational power raises the cost of production and reinforces Bitcoin’s scarcity profile.
As mining becomes more capital-intensive, acquiring Bitcoin through the open market becomes relatively more attractive, subtly shifting incentives toward accumulation rather than production.
Long-Term Holders Return to Accumulation Mode
On-chain data further supports the idea that conviction is rebuilding beneath the surface. The Hodler Net Position Change — which tracks wallets holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days — turned positive in late December for the first time since September.
Long-term holders added nearly 3,800 BTC after three months of net distribution. Historically, this cohort tends to accumulate during periods of consolidation and weakness, rather than chasing momentum near cycle highs.
Their renewed accumulation aligns closely with ETF inflows and institutional positioning, suggesting a shared view that current levels offer attractive long-term value.
Institutional Capital Changes the Market’s DNA
Institutional participation continues to play a stabilising role in this cycle. Strategy, led by executive chairman Michael Saylor, remains a prominent example. The company now holds approximately 687,410 Bitcoin — nearly 3% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply — with a market value near $59 billion.
Such deeply capitalised holders are structurally less likely to engage in forced selling during periods of volatility. This institutional backbone marks a sharp contrast with earlier cycles dominated by leveraged retail activity, reducing the risk of disorderly downside spirals.
November’s Shakeout Strengthened the Base
The November correction proved to be a critical stress test. A rapid liquidation wiped nearly $1 trillion from total crypto market capitalization, briefly pushing Bitcoin below $81,000.
Yet the selloff was contained. Buyers stepped in aggressively, stabilising prices and driving a rebound toward $95,000. Subsequent retests of the $80,000–$85,000 zone have consistently attracted demand, suggesting that the market used the correction to reset rather than unwind structurally.
Miner Pressure Adds Friction, Not Fragility
Bitcoin now trades close to its estimated average production cost of roughly $94,000, increasing pressure on higher-cost miners. Some may be forced to liquidate holdings to cover operating expenses.
However, miner selling plays a far smaller role in price formation than in prior cycles. ETF demand, institutional flows, and long-term holder behavior increasingly dominate supply dynamics, limiting the downside impact of mining-related sales.
What to Watch Next
The coming weeks will test whether $75,000 holds as a durable floor. Key macro catalysts include the U.S. Employment Situation report and upcoming Federal Open Market Committee minutes, both of which could reshape rate expectations and risk sentiment.
If support holds and ETF inflows persist, Bitcoin’s current retreat may ultimately be remembered as a consolidation within a broader bull market — not the end of it.
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