XRP Forecast: Standard Chartered Slashes Target as $1.45 Trendline Support Teeters
This week, XRP is in a tight trading range between $1.45 and $1.49. The token has recovered 38% since its early February lows...
Quick overview
- XRP is currently trading between $1.45 and $1.49, having recovered 38% since early February, but faces challenges as money shifts from crypto to AI investments.
- Standard Chartered has significantly reduced its year-end 2026 price target for XRP from $8.00 to $2.80, citing market weakness and capital rotation.
- Ripple has partnered with Aviva Investors to explore tokenizing traditional investment funds, while XRP ETFs have seen strong institutional inflows without any net outflows.
- On-chain data indicates a 26% drop in active addresses on the XRPL, suggesting a slowdown in retail activity, which could lead to a bearish outlook if XRP remains below $1.53.
This week, XRP is in a tight trading range between $1.45 and $1.49. The token has recovered 38% since its early February lows, but the overall market is seeing money move out of crypto and into AI infrastructure.
Adding to the technical challenges, major institutions are starting to lower their long-term expectations for XRP.
Standard Chartered Slashes Year-End Forecast by 65%
Standard Chartered surprised many XRP supporters by sharply lowering its year-end 2026 price target. The bank, which once predicted an $8.00 price, now expects XRP to end the year at $2.80.
Why the Downgrade?
- Market-Wide Capitulation: Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research, pointed to ongoing weakness in the sector and the inability of major tokens to recover after the February crash.
- Capital Rotation: More investors are choosing to invest in the growing AI sector instead of high-risk crypto assets, which has reduced retail buying pressure.
- Tempered Optimism: Although $2.80 is almost 95% higher than current prices, the bank does not expect XRP to reach a new all-time high this year.
Institutional Momentum: Aviva Investors and ETF Strength
Even with the recent price drop, Ripple is making significant progress in bringing the XRP Ledger (XRPL) to more institutional users.
- Aviva Investors Partnership: On February 11, UK insurance company Aviva, which manages £253 billion in assets, announced a partnership with Ripple to explore tokenizing traditional investment funds on the XRPL. This is Ripple’s first major partnership with a European asset manager.
- ETF “Moat”: Since launching in late 2025, spot XRP ETFs have attracted $1.37 billion in inflows. So far, there has not been a single day of net outflows, showing that institutional holders are committed to holding their positions.
- RLUSD Integration: Ripple’s USD-pegged stablecoin, RLUSD, is now fully available on Binance, offering a regulated way for institutions to access DeFi liquidity.
XRP/USD Technical Analysis: The Symmetrical Triangle Battle
XRP is now trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern, with resistance from the January $1.93 high and support from the February $1.12 low.
| Support/Resistance | Price Level | Technical Outlook |
| Major Resistance | $1.62 – $1.67 | The “Bull Trigger”; a break here targets $1.80 and $2.00. |
| Immediate Resistance | $1.53 | The 0.5 Fibonacci level; current ceiling for relief rallies. |
| Crucial Support | $1.43 – $1.45 | The 0.382 Fib floor and trendline intersection. |
| Secondary Support | $1.31 | The “Safety Net” before a retest of the $1.12 yearly low. |
Network Health Warning
On-chain data shows some warning signs. The number of active addresses on the XRPL fell 26% this week to 40,778. While large holders are accumulating (with exchange reserves at a two-year low), regular retail activity has slowed down.
The Verdict: Weekly Bias
For the week of February 17, 2026, the outlook is neutral to bearish if XRP stays below $1.53.
XRP is at a critical point. If it closes above $1.53 for the day, it could break out toward $1.70, helped by the Aviva partnership news. But with network activity dropping and Standard Chartered’s downgrade, it may be more likely to test the $1.31 support level again.
Trade Idea: Look for a clear breakout from the triangle pattern. Go long only if there is a confirmed close above $1.55, with a target of $1.62. If the price falls below $1.43, consider short-selling with a target of $1.31.
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