WTI Crude Relief: Oil Steadies at $62.40 as U.S.-Iran Nuclear “Principles” Calm Market Fears
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is making a slight comeback this Wednesday after several days of falling prices...
Quick overview
- WTI crude oil is experiencing a slight recovery, trading around $62.40 to $62.53 per barrel after reaching a two-week low.
- Recent diplomatic progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks has eased immediate concerns about military conflict, contributing to price stabilization.
- Despite this, oil prices remain under pressure due to a looming supply glut, with OPEC+ potentially increasing production in April 2026.
- Technical analysis indicates that WTI is defending the $62.15 support level, but a bearish outlook persists unless prices break above $63.00.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is making a slight comeback this Wednesday after several days of falling prices that pushed it to a two-week low. It is now trading around $62.40 to $62.53 per barrel, up about 0.3% as traders react to news from Geneva.
Although the long-term outlook is uncertain due to too much global supply, the recent diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran has eased immediate concerns about war.
The Geneva Breakthrough: “Guiding Principles” Reached
The main reason for prices stabilizing mid-week is the end of the second round of indirect U.S.-Iran nuclear talks.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said both sides have agreed on the “main guiding principles.” While a final deal is still some way off, having a clearer path forward has helped calm fears of military conflict in the region.
- S. officials said Iran is expected to return for more talks in two weeks, bringing detailed proposals to address issues like uranium enrichment and sanctions relief.
- Earlier this week, Iranian military drills temporarily closed the Strait of Hormuz and briefly pushed prices up to $63.50. Now, these actions are seen as a tactical show of force, not a lasting threat to global oil supply.
Supply Glut Looms: The 2026 Overproduction Crisis
Even with the recent diplomatic progress, oil prices are still under heavy pressure because of growing oversupply.
1. The OPEC+ April Dilemma
There are more rumors that OPEC+ may start increasing production again in April 2026. The group wants to win back market share, especially since countries like the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana are producing record amounts.
2. Rising Kazakhstan Output
Adding more pressure to the market, reports say the large Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is quickly returning to its full capacity of almost 700,000 barrels per day after a technical shutdown in January.
3. IEA’s Bearish Forecast
The International Energy Agency (IEA) still expects a big surplus in 2026, predicting that global supply will be more than 3.7 million barrels per day higher than demand.
Fundamental Factors: WTI Outlook for February 2026
| Factor | Description | Market Impact |
| Geopolitics | Geneva talks reduce the immediate risk of Middle East supply shocks. | Bearish/Neutral |
| U.S. Inventories | Analysts expect a 2.3 million barrel build in API/EIA reports this week. | Bearish |
| OPEC+ Policy | Potential April hikes could flood an already oversupplied market. | Bearish |
| Non-OPEC Growth | record U.S. shale and South American production offsets OPEC cuts. | Bearish |
Technical Analysis: Bulls Defend the $62.15 Floor
On the 2-hour chart, WTI is starting to recover after falling below a symmetrical triangle pattern earlier this week.
- Immediate support is at $62.15, which held as the floor during Wednesday’s Asian session. If prices fall below this, they could drop further toward $61.13.
- Key resistance is at $63.50, matching the 50-period EMA. Crude needs to move above this level to change the current bearish outlook.
- Dynamic resistance is at $62.89, where the 200-period EMA is stopping stronger rallies. This shows that sellers still have the upper hand in the medium term.
The Verdict: A Technical Rebound in a Bear Market
The forecast for February 18, 2026, is neutral to bearish.
The Geneva talks have stopped prices from jumping, but the growing supply is hard to ignore. Investors should watch tonight’s API inventory report. If there is another big increase, WTI could fall back toward the $60 support level.
Trade idea: Think about opening short positions if relief rallies do not break above $63.00, aiming for a target of $61.64. Set a stop-loss above $63.55.
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