AMD Stock Defends the $200 Zone on Crusoe Deal, Yet Rising Debt and Delays Weigh
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. shares are battling renewed skepticism around their AI positioning, even as the stock attempts to stabilize...
Quick overview
- AMD shares are facing skepticism regarding their AI positioning, with recent selling pressure stemming from a downgrade and exclusion from a major AI collaboration.
- Despite a temporary rebound supported by a loan guarantee for cloud startup Crusoe, concerns about production delays and execution challenges persist.
- AMD's recent earnings beat expectations, but the outlook suggests a slowdown, leading to investor disappointment in a market demanding consistent growth.
- Analysts question AMD's competitive standing in AI accelerators, as rivals like Nvidia maintain advantages in ecosystem integration and scalability.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. shares are battling renewed skepticism around their AI positioning, even as the stock attempts to stabilize near the $190–$200 support zone.
Advanced Micro Devices has faced mounting selling pressure in recent sessions, driven by a downgrade, softer long-term expectations, and reports of exclusion from a major AI infrastructure collaboration. Investor confidence has weakened as markets increasingly differentiate between perceived AI leaders and secondary challengers.
AMD Finds Support After Crusoe News
Despite the negative tone, AMD shares have found tentative support in the $190–$200 range. A rebound on Thursday followed a Reuters report, citing The Information, that AMD is backing a $300 million loan guarantee for cloud startup Crusoe. The funds are reportedly earmarked for purchasing and deploying AMD’s AI chips. Should Crusoe struggle to secure enough customers, AMD is said to be prepared to lease the chips back.
While the arrangement may help stimulate demand and lower Crusoe’s borrowing costs, it has also fueled debate about so-called “circular deals,” where chipmakers effectively finance the purchases that support their own sales figures. Such structures may boost near-term revenue visibility but raise questions about the durability and quality of demand.
Share Price Reacts Swiftly
Following the earnings release, AMD shares fell sharply, sliding roughly 18% over the week and pushing the stock below the $200 level. The move underscores how quickly sentiment can turn when expectations are stretched. Early this week we saw a rebound to $220 but the rebound didn’t last as the 100 daily MSA (green) turned into resistance, a sign of trend reversal to bearish, and AMD reversed down, heading below $200 again.
AMD Chart Daily – Breaking Below the 20 SMA
From a technical perspective, attention is now shifting toward the $220 area on the upside if the rebound accelerates, while on the downside the $185 area comes first, which previously acted as resistance. A sustained break below that level could open the door toward the 2021 highs near $164.
Production Delays Raise Execution Concerns
Compounding sentiment pressure were reports that AMD is experiencing production challenges with its latest AI accelerators. According to sources, manufacturing of the Instinct MI455X chips has been delayed while engineers address technical issues. The disruption could also affect shipments of the Helios rack-scale systems, potentially limiting unit deliveries this year.
If output remains constrained, AMD may only ship AI chips in relatively small quantities in the near term. For a company seeking to capture a larger share of the rapidly expanding AI infrastructure market, delays risk undermining credibility and slowing revenue ramp expectations.
Earnings Beat Falls Short of Elevated Expectations
AMD’s fourth-quarter results exceeded consensus estimates, and first-quarter revenue guidance of approximately $9.8 billion topped forecasts. On the surface, the numbers reflected resilience in data center and AI-related segments.
However, the outlook implied a sequential slowdown. In a market that increasingly demands accelerating AI-driven growth, moderation—even if temporary—is often met with disappointment. Investors appear to be raising the bar, requiring not only beats but evidence of sustained momentum.
AMD Q4 2025 Earnings Overview
Headline Results
- EPS (Non-GAAP): $1.53, beating consensus by $0.21
- Revenue: $10.3 billion, exceeding expectations by $630 million
- Market Reaction: Shares declined post-earnings despite the beat
Market Position
- Market Capitalization: ~$394.2 billion
- Exchange / Sector: NASDAQ-listed, leading semiconductor designer
- Context: Results highlight strong execution, but expectations remain elevated
Financial Health Snapshot
- Revenue Growth (3Y): 5.6%, indicating steady expansion
Profitability:
- Net margin: 10.32%
- Gross margin: 48.26%
Balance Sheet:
- Current ratio: 2.31
- Debt-to-equity: 0.06 (very low leverage)
Competitive Positioning Under Scrutiny
Analysts have also questioned AMD’s relative standing in AI accelerators. While the company remains competitive in CPUs and certain server markets, large-scale AI deployments increasingly depend on ecosystem integration, advanced networking, and software optimization. In these areas, rivals such as Nvidia Corporation maintain a strong advantage.
AMD’s hardware may be technically compelling, but customers often prioritize ecosystem maturity and scalability. Until AMD demonstrates broader hyperscale adoption, skepticism may persist.
A Critical Juncture
The broader debate centers not on whether AI will drive long-term semiconductor growth, but on how quickly AMD can translate opportunity into durable earnings expansion. Heavy investment combined with execution uncertainty creates valuation risk.
For now, the stock’s ability to hold support near $190–$200 may offer short-term relief. Yet sustained upside will likely depend on clearer production progress, stronger competitive positioning, and demand that appears structurally independent rather than financially engineered.
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