Gold Price Reclaims $5,000 as Trump’s Iran Ultimatum Ignites Safe-Haven Firestorm; What’s Next?
The "Yellow Metal" is right back in the spotlight, and the stakes have never been any higher. As of last Friday morning, spot gold prices...
Quick overview
- Spot gold prices are approaching the critical $5,000 mark amid rising geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Iran and Ukraine.
- Gold prices surged by 0.3% to hit $5,008.86, with futures trading even higher, indicating strong market interest.
- Analysts suggest a potential breakout above $5,118 could lead to significant automated buying, targeting prices of $5,257 and $5,442.
- Long-term forecasts from major banks predict gold could reach $5,400 by late 2026, with a bullish outlook driven by central bank demand and retail buying.
The “Yellow Metal” is right back in the spotlight, and the stakes have never been any higher. As of last Friday morning, spot gold prices were having another go at the $5,000–$5,010 range – a major psychological barrier that’s become the main battleground for investors everywhere.
After a wild ride in January that saw gold zoom above $5,500 for the first time ever, prices are charging forward all over again. And the reason for this latest surge? A very worrying mix of a 10-day ultimatum to Tehran and a complete deadlock in the Ukraine-Russia peace talks.
The Iran Ultimatum: 10 Days to Get a Deal or World War
Geopolitical worries are driving the current price increase. Reports from Geneva are saying that the indirect nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran are on the brink of collapse. President Donald Trump has basically said that if a deal isn’t reached in the next 10 days, the U.S. military is ready to start bombing – and U.S. ships including the USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln are already in place.
Market Impact: Gold spot prices (XAU/USD) jumped by 0.3% – or $12.50 – intraday to hit $5,008.86, while U.S. gold futures for April delivery are trading even higher, stuck between $5,005 and $5,025.
Gold (XAU/USD) Price Technical Analysis: Will we see $5,118 Again?
As someone who does this sort of analysis for a living, when you look at the 2-hour XAU/USD chart, it looks like gold is locked in a classic “coiling” pattern. It’s at the moment stuck between a rising trendline support and a solid horizontal resistance at $5,118.
The Main Technical Points:
- Support Zone: That $4,975-$4,955 area is acting as a solid floor – helped out by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average.
- Momentum: The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at 55 – which means there’s still plenty of room for prices to rise without getting overbought.
- Target Price: If we do see a clean break above $5,118, you’d expect to see a wave of automated buying, aiming for the $5,257 and $5,442 areas.
A Long Term Bull Market: Can Gold hit $6,500?
While geopolitics is currently providing the short-term spark, the long-term fire is being fueled by banks – in particular, the really big ones like BMO and Goldman Sachs. They’ve both revised their year-end targets:
- Goldman Sachs: $5,400 by the end of Q4 2026 is their guess.
- BMO (Bull Case): They think it’s possible to see a massive move to $6,500 if the de-dollarization trend continues to grow.
Fundamental Drivers Today:
| Factor | Current Outlook | Trend |
| Central Bank Demand | Projected 800 tonnes for 2026 | Bullish |
| ETF Inflows | $19B added in January alone | Strongly Bullish |
| Fed Policy | Rates “Higher for Longer” until June | Mixed |
| Physical Demand | Chinese/Indian retail buying surging | Bullish |
Trade Idea: Catch the Safe-Haven Wave
For anyone looking to get into the market, the current strategy – and one that’s favored by analysts – is to “Buy on Breakout”.
- Entry Point: Buy above $5,120.
- Main Target: $5,257.
- Secondary Target: $5,442.
- Stop Loss: If prices drop below $4,955 (that would protect against a quick de-escalation of Middle East tensions).
What to watch next: Traders are really focused on the upcoming PCE Inflation data. If inflation remains high, the Fed might delay rate cuts even further – which could give a little boost to the dollar and make it a “buy the dip” opportunity for gold bulls at the $4,975 level.
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