JSE Top 40 Index (JTOPI) Faces 98,000 Test: Can the Commodity Giant Survive the Global Risk-Off Storm?

Quick overview

The South African stock market is going through one of its toughest times in years. On March 24, 2026, the FTSE/JSE Top 40 Index (JTOPI) was around 102,615, trying to recover after dropping 15% from its early March high of 121,329.

Although the index rose slightly by 0.49% on March 23, market confidence is still weak. The JSE, known for its focus on commodities, first benefited from higher gold and platinum prices, but those gains were quickly lost as global investors pulled back due to the US-Israel-Iran conflict.

Because South Africa imports more oil than it exports, it is especially exposed to energy price shocks from the Strait of Hormuz. With WTI crude prices jumping between $88 and $119, higher import costs and inflation have made the JSE much more volatile.

JSE Top 40 Index Technical Analysis: The 98,000 Demand Zone is the Final Stand

The JSE Top 40 Index is trading close to 102,300, steadying after a sharp drop from its recent high near 121,000. It has fallen below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which are now around 110,000 and 108,000. This points to a shift toward a weaker trend in the medium term.

The index is just above its immediate support at 103,600. If it falls below this level, losses could speed up toward the 97,800 support zone, which matches an upward trendline and a strong historical support area. If that fails, the next targets are 95,600 and 92,900.

If the index tries to recover, it may run into resistance at 106,500, then at 110,000, and a bigger barrier at 113,800. The RSI is near 33, which shows the market is oversold, but there is no clear sign of a turnaround yet.

If the index does not move back above 106,500, the overall outlook stays negative, and sellers will likely aim for the 98,000 level soon.

The March Rebalance: Out with Mondi, In with Pan African Resources

A major change happened in mid-March during the JSE’s quarterly index update. Mondi plc (MNP), a leading packaging company, left the Top 40 and was replaced by Pan African Resources (PAN).

According to experts, this change has made the index more sensitive to gold prices. By replacing an industrial company with a gold-focused miner, the Top 40 now reacts more to changes in gold. This can help during global tensions but can also hurt when gold prices drop sharply.

Major resource companies such as Anglo American, BHP, and Sibanye Stillwater still have a big influence on the index. Gold Fields and AngloGold Ashanti helped offset losses during the first Iran strikes, but they have since been affected by investors leaving emerging markets as the US Dollar strengthened.

The “Trump Reprieve” and Rand Resilience

The small rebound on March 23 happened after the U.S. government announced a ‘Five-Day Reprieve.’ News that strikes on Iranian energy sites would be delayed helped the South African Rand (ZAR) strengthen against the US Dollar, which gave quick relief to dual-listed stocks such as Naspers and Prosus.

However, there are still major challenges:

• Inflationary Pressure: High oil prices are making the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) keep interest rates high, which puts pressure on local banks such as FirstRand and Standard Bank.
• China Factor: Poor industrial data from China is limiting gains for iron ore and platinum group metals (PGMs), which are key to JSE export earnings.

Unless there is a lasting diplomatic solution in the Middle East, the JSE Top 40 will probably stay in a ‘sell the rally’ phase. Traders should keep an eye on the 98,000 level. If the index falls below that, it could drop further toward the 92,000 area, which was last reached in 2024.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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