Gold Price Forecast: Holds Steady Near $4,650 as Trump’s Iran Deadline on Strait of Hormuz Looms – Safe Haven Surge or Sharp Drop Ahead?

Quick overview

Gold jumped on April 8, 2026, rising as much as 3.1% during the day after President Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran. Spot gold briefly topped $4,850 before settling between $4,796 and $4,812 in heavy trading. Futures also climbed, reaching $4,822 to $4,834 before pulling back slightly.

This strong move came after gold traded in a narrow range between $4,650 and $4,680 on April 6 and 7, as markets waited for news about the Strait of Hormuz.

Why did gold surge past $4,800 today?

The ceasefire announcement calmed immediate fears of escalation and lowered the war premium. However, ongoing uncertainty about the deal and oil shipments through Hormuz kept demand for safe-haven assets strong. Inflation risks from earlier oil price spikes above $110 also supported gold.

Ceasefire Eases Immediate Escalation Fears but Keeps Uncertainty Alive

President Trump’s announcement halts US and Israeli strikes if Iran allows safe tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz. This move lowers the risk of a long energy crisis and wider Middle East conflict, giving global markets some short-term relief.

Possible talks in Islamabad could open a diplomatic path, but the deal’s conditions and short two-week window mean tensions could return if talks fail. Oil supply issues may continue even as the immediate war premium fades.

Gold rose as traders weighed ongoing geopolitical risks and its use as an inflation hedge after the earlier oil spike. Central bank buying and continued diversification also supported prices. Gold climbed even as stocks rallied on hopes of de-escalation, though prices pulled back slightly as markets considered the deal’s conditions.

Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Confirms Bullish Breakout

Looking at the charts, gold broke strongly above the $4,786 to $4,800 resistance on the four-hour timeframe. It now trades near $4,801, continuing the upward trend seen since late March. Gold is well above the 50-period moving average near $4,652 and is now testing the 200-period average, which had limited gains before.

Momentum indicators support the bullish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 64, showing stronger buying but not yet overbought. Higher lows and bullish candle patterns suggest buyers remain in control as long as the upward trendline stays intact.

Key Gold Price Levels to Watch (April 8, 2026)

Three Key Factors Likely to Influence Gold in Coming Sessions

• How talks progress during the two-week ceasefire and whether oil shipments through Hormuz resume
• Changes in the strength of the US dollar and Treasury yields as inflation expectations shift.
• The balance between safe-haven demand and risk-taking in stocks and other assets

Short-Term Momentum Points Up, with Long-Term Targets Ahead

In the short term, the ceasefire has removed the biggest war-related premium, but volatility is still high. If talks break down or fighting resumes, safe-haven buying could return quickly. Analysts say that while the immediate boost from conflict fears is fading, gold remains supported by inflation risks and ongoing demand for diversification.

Longer-term forecasts are still positive, with firms like J.P. Morgan expecting average prices near $5,000 or higher later in 2026. Gold is up more than 50% compared to last year, showing its strength through many news-driven swings. The next direction will depend on whether risk sentiment keeps improving or if ongoing uncertainties keep safe-haven demand strong.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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