Quick overview

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Precious metals surged after the announcement of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, although analysts warn the improvement could prove temporary if the agreement fails to hold.

Gold and Silver reached their highest levels in three weeks after Washington and Tehran announced a two-week ceasefire, a signal markets interpreted as partial relief from tensions in the Middle East.

In that context, gold was down 0.17% at $4,769 after touching an intraday high of $4,888 earlier in the session. Silver, meanwhile, fell 1.35% to $74.315, slightly below its daily peak of $77.80.

The move was also supported by financial factors. According to Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, the rally was fueled by a weaker U.S. dollar—which fell more than 1% during the session—and by a sharp drop in oil prices. Brent crude plunged more than 15% and touched its lowest level in nearly a month, also shaping market expectations.

However, the outlook remains uncertain. Analysts at ING Group said market sentiment has shown signs of stabilization but noted that gold is still down roughly 11% from its February peak, as the conflict with Iran has paradoxically reduced its appeal as a safe-haven asset.

A more cautious view came from Sucden Financial, which warned the truce appears fragile and conditional, meaning the rally could reflect the immediate impact of headlines rather than a structural shift. In that sense, the outlook for precious metals will depend both on the durability of the agreement and the direction of monetary policy in the United States.

An unusual reaction to the conflict

During the conflict with Iran, the behavior of gold and silver surprised many analysts. Rather than acting as safe havens, both metals experienced broad declines, contradicting the traditional view that geopolitical tensions tend to boost their prices.

Part of this dynamic was explained by their inverse correlation with oil, which surged during the conflict. In fact, by late February—before the escalation—silver had reached about $93 while gold had surpassed $5,200, levels that remain far above current prices.

The metals also showed strong sensitivity to political developments. A warning by Donald Trump about a possible attack on Iran triggered a drop of more than 8% in silver and around 4% in gold late last week.

Fragile truce and focus on the Fed

The ceasefire announcement was made by Trump through Truth Social, where he said the agreement with Iran would last two weeks, conditional on the “full, immediate and safe” reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, the United States had already achieved its military objectives and received a ten-point peace proposal from Iran.

From Tehran, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that Iranian forces would halt defensive operations if attacks stopped and said safe passage through the strait would be guaranteed during the agreed period.

Still, uncertainty remains. After the initial sharp drop, oil prices began to rebound, keeping inflation concerns alive and complicating the outlook for policy at the Federal Reserve.

Minutes from the Fed reflected a divided view: while some officials believe a prolonged conflict could weaken the labor market and justify rate cuts, others warn that inflation could remain elevated if crude prices rise again.