Gold Price Dips to $4,700–$4,735 as Failed US-Iran Talks and Hormuz Blockade Trigger Risk-Off Move

Quick overview

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently hovering around $4,700-$4,735 per ounce on April 13, 2026, down a decent chunk – anywhere from 0.7% to 1.9% – as the day got underway with a notable downside gap. COMEX futures are showing a similar loss of momentum, oscillating around $4,719-$4,751, with some sessions dipping as low as $4,658-$4,704 – a near one-week low.

Why Gold’s Rally Has Snuffed Out

The price drop follows the collapse of US-Iran peace talks over the weekend in Islamabad. Despite a lot of progress, the two countries still couldn’t agree on a number of key issues, including Iran’s nuclear program, its regional proxies (like Lebanon), asset unfreezing and most importantly control of the Strait of Hormuz. In light of this, the US announced a rather drastic move: a blockade of Iranian ports, which kicks in as of Monday morning.

This escalation has understandably raised fresh concerns about how long energy supplies could be disrupted, sending oil prices soaring (USOIL +8%+ above $104-$105). With inflation worries on the rise, the US dollar getting stronger and bond yields climbing, gold is temporarily on the back foot.

Gold had earlier this week made a strong push toward three-week highs near $4,800-$4,850 on ceasefire optimism, but has since reversed that gain in the face of renewed uncertainty. Its down more than 11% from where things were at the start of the US-Iran conflict back in late February.

The Upside Remains Solid

Despite today’s dip, the fundamental drivers which have been pushing gold higher for a while now are still very much in place:

• Central Banks are Buying into Gold: According to surveys, a whopping ~95% of central banks plan to buy even more gold in 2026.
• Long-term Trends: The ongoing shift of global reserves away from traditional assets is a long-term boost.
• Inflation Protection: Energy-driven inflation risks remain high, which keeps gold relevant as a hedge.

Analyst forecasts for 2026 are still broadly bullish, with base cases ranging from $4,000-$5,000+ and more optimistic targets near $5,000-$6,300 by year-end or possibly into 2027.

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical View

Gold is stabilizing after a sharp recovery, currently trading around $4,726 while respecting a rising trendline and holding above a key demand zone near $4,700-$4,730. As you’d expect, this area is a short-term pivot point.

The structure still shows a clear bullish bias, with higher lows in play, and the 50 EMA is starting to turn upwards, while the 200 EMA near $4,780 acts as a key resistance level.

Key Levels:

• Resistance: $4,780 → $4,860
• Support: $4,730 → $4,700 → $4,610

Weekly Outlook: Bullish while above $4,700, with $4,780 and $4,860 as the next two levels of resistance to break; if we fail to hold $4,700 then we could be looking at a deeper test of $4,610.

Macro Events to Watch This Week (April 13-19)

• US Data: PPI (April 14), retail sales and what the Fed has to say – the hotter the inflation numbers, the more pressure gold could face from higher yields and a stronger dollar.
• Geopolitics: Any updates on US-Iran talks or Hormuz shipping activity will likely have an impact on gold.
• Global Data: China’s Q1 GDP (April 16) and other data points to keep an eye on.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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