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All week long I’ve been looking for bearish positions in the EUR/USD. Despite last week's move higher, I’ve felt that the Euro is on a downward trajectory. The main reason for that is the fact that I feel the USD will appreciate when rates start to rise.

The US economy is in a far better state than the Eurozone and as such, I suspect the rate of interest rate increases will be faster in the US.

When we have larger time frame momentum, I like to use that trend to identify short-term setups. For today I want to continue to trade off the 50-SMA on the 4-hr chart. At this point in Asian trade, the EUR/USD is drifting higher, as it sometimes does in overnight trade. However, if we can get a test and a bearish candle, I think that will be a solid point to short as the 50 has held up on a number of occasions recently.

 

EUR/USD – 240 min Chart.