Forex Signals Brief for May 8: US Non-Farm Payrolls the Key
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
US Market Wrap
Yesterday was all about the US jobs situation and it will be a similar story today as we wait on the latest US non-farm payroll number.
During the US session, we saw jobless claims come in a touch of over the 3 million mark which was a positive given that it is now on the decline. The prior week was closer to the 4 million level, which is at least headed in the right direction. That said, those who have lost jobs would have been hit immediately, so we would expect that to be the case.
Continuing claims, on the other hand, wasn’t so pretty, with a jump to 22.5 million which was far higher than expected, suggesting that perhaps, there is no end in sight yet. These are the worst post-war numbers we’ve ever seen.
As US President Donald Trump urges the states to reopen, the markets keep ticking higher. The SPX closed in the green while the NASDAQ continues to lead the charge higher on the back of some strong results from the major tech names.
The AUD/USD continues to be a leader to the upside based on it being a risk-on proxy and the strong result in containing the spread of COVID-19.
The Data Agenda
It might seem like deja-vu, but once again we are looking at the US jobs number. After ADP and jobless claims, the attention is now firmly on the non-farm payroll print today.
The expectaion is for 22 million jobs lost which is ugly – but there are wide ranges of expectation here so we could see something different. The majors will be in play clearly today, so watch the Greenback closely.
In Europe, German trade balance will be the one to watch for any moves in the EUR/USD. While late in the day we also have Canadian employment which will be the main market-moving event for the USD/CAD so expect both sides of this one to be moving hard and fast today.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team closed one signal in the green yesterday from four signals.
EUR/GBP – Active Signal
The EUR/GBP has been very weak this year and the chart is looking bearish. We are short here hoping this support level will give way for a further move lower.
SPX – Watching
The SPX is holding steady ahead of today’s job report. Price is still south of 2,900 which is a tough level to crack at the moment.
BTC has surged higher overnight and is now back at the $10,000 level.
The chart pattern that we were watching which was a flag pattern, played out just as we had hoped it might. Albeit a little slower than I might have liked.
Nevertheless, if price can hold, the door is open to more upside. As mentioned previous, the halving is now just three days away so that is clearly a fundamental catalyst that is helping bid prices up at the moment. We are also hearing Paul Tudor-Jones is fan at the moment.