Forex Signals Brief June 27: Canadian Inflation Expected to Slow to 4.0%

Today the consumer inflation CPI is expected to show another slowdown in Canada, with median and trimmed CPI expected at 4.0%

Skerdian Meta•Tuesday, June 27, 2023•3 min read

Yesterday’s Market Wrap

Yesterday most markets were quiet, with a slight bid in the USD. We saw some volatility in the price of Gold, which was enough for us to pull a good trade/forex signal here. Geopolitical developments in Russia over the weekend turned out to be mere news events without significant consequences. The situation in Moscow seems to be returning to normal.

Despite the initial uncertainty, risk sentiment and market appetite have remained unaffected, while there hasn’t been a notable increase in demand for safe-haven assets. Most major currency pairs traded flat in a tight range, unable to fully capitalize on the initial weakness of the US dollar (USD), which later turned into slight USD strength. Economic data was relatively light, with the German Ifo business climate indicator being the main event. The indicator showed significant weakness, and economists from Ifo Institute are expressing pessimism, which shoud be bearish for the Euro.

Today’s Market Expectations

Today the economic data was light during the Asian and European sessions, with ECB President Lagarde holding a speech but nothing to change the markets. Later we have the inflation numbers from Canada, which are expected to show another cool-off to 4.0% in May from 4.2% in April, although the impact on the CAD is not so clear. After that the US CB consumer confidence will be released which is expected to improve, while durable goods orders are expected to turn negative.

Forex Signals Update

Yesterday the volatility was low, although it was enough for us to pull several trading signals, three of which were Gold signals while the other one was a GBP/USD signal. We ended up with two winning Gold signals, and two losing ones, although, one of the winning Gold signals was a long term trade.

Selling the Jump in GOLD

Gold has been showing weakness in recent times, with moving averages acting as resistance, particularly after its failure to establish a new record high last month. This downward trend has continued, although on Friday we saw a retrace higher. But, the climb was halted by the 100-day Simple Moving Average (represented by the green line) following a sudden surge. We opened three sell signals yesterday in Gold, two of which closed in profit.

XAU/USD – 240 minute chart

The 50 SMA Turning Into Resistance for GBP/USD

GBP/USD turned bullish late last month and has been making strong gains during this month, climbing around 550 pips from the lows. But last week we saw a retrace and after holding as support for some time, the 50 SMA (yellow) was broken and then it turned into resistance. So, the momentum might be changing here too.

GBP/USD – 240-minute chart

Cryptocurrency Update

BITCOIN Holds Above $30,000

Bitcoin underwent a rapid reversal towards the end of the previous week, following a brief dip below the $25,000 level. Buyers stepped in and pushed the price above the moving averages on the daily chart. As the week drew to a close, Bitcoin managed to reach a new high for the year, surpassing the $31,000 mark.

BTC/USD – Daily chart

Can the 100 SMA Hold As Support for ETHEREUM

Ethereum encountered a decline that pushed it below the $1,630 level. However, the presence of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) (represented by the purple line) acted as support and prevented further downward movement. This moving average served as a support level on the daily chart, and the price formation above it resulted in a doji candlestick pattern, which is considered a bullish reversal signal. As a result, last week we witnessed a bounce off the moving average, with ETH/USD moving above $1,900. However, it fell short of reaching our take-profit (TP) target, although the price is finding support at the 100 daily SMA (green).

ETH/USD – Daily chart

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.