USD Dips on Softer ISM Manufacturing and Falling Prices
Manufacturing prices continue to decline in the US as the ISM report showed today, which will lower prices for finished goods later
Markets have been sort of mixed today, starting slow in the Asian session, with a slight bid on the USD, which later turned softer during the European session. The price action was slow apart from crude oil which jumped around $2 higher off the lows, after Saudi Arabia decided to extend the output cut for another month.
Caixin manufacturing showed another slowdown for June in China, but it came above expectations, which was keeping the sentiment positive. The sentiment improved further after the softer ISM manufacturing from the US, which also showed that manufacturing prices are falling. That will translate into lower prices for finished goods in the coming months, which means that the FED has less pressure to keep raising interest rates beyond the July hike. The USD dipped around 30-40 pips lower across the board, although we used that to buy USD/JPY since the bullish trend here is pretty strong.
ISM Manufacturing PMI for June 2023 Highlights
- ISM manufacturing PMI for June 46.0 points versus estimates of 47.0
- ISM manufacturing for May was 46.9 points
- ISM Manufacturing PMI 46.0 points versus 47.0 estimate
- Prices paid tumble to 41.8 points versus 44.0 estimatde. Last month was 44.2 points
- Employment falls below 48.1 points from 51.4 last month and 50.5 points estimate
- New orders rose to 45.6 points from 42.6 last month
The table of components from the ISM shows no components above the 50 level indicative of contracting manufacturing. Employment, production, customer inventories, new export orders all moved from above 50 in May 2 below 50 in June:
From the ISM:
In the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®, Timothy R. Fiore, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, offered the following insights:
- “The June Manufacturing PMI® registered 46 percent, 0.9 percentage point lower than the 46.9 percent recorded in May. This indicates a seventh month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion.”
- “The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 45.6 percent, 3 percentage points higher than the figure of 42.6 percent recorded in May.”
- “The Production Index reading of 46.7 percent is a 4.4-percentage point decrease compared to May’s figure of 51.1 percent. The Prices Index registered 41.8 percent, down 2.4 percentage points compared to the May figure of 44.2 percent.”
- “The U.S. manufacturing sector shrank again, with the Manufacturing PMI® losing ground compared to the previous month, indicating a faster rate of contraction. Demand eased again, with the (1) New Orders Index contracting but at a slower rate, (2) New Export Orders Index moving into contraction and (3) Backlog of Orders Index remaining at a level not seen since early in the coronavirus pandemic (May 2020).”
- “Demand remains weak, production is slowing due to lack of work, and suppliers have capacity. There are signs of more employment reduction actions in the near term. Seventy-one percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in June, down from 76 percent in May.”
- “More industries contracted strongly, however, as the share of manufacturing GDP registering a composite PMI® calculation at or below 45 percent — a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness — was 44 percent in June, compared to 31 percent in May.”
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