Gold Price Forecast: $3,251 Breakout Possible if Fed Sparks Momentum
Gold price rebounds to $3,204 as bulls eye $3,251 resistance. Key Fed speakers and PMI data ahead may determine if breakout or rejection...
Quick overview
- Gold (XAU/USD) closed the week at $3,204 after a bounce from $3,173, but remains in a descending channel.
- Traders are focused on the critical resistance level at $3,219, which has hindered bullish attempts.
- Upcoming US economic data and Federal Reserve speeches could significantly influence gold's near-term direction.
- A breakout above $3,219 could lead to targets of $3,251 and $3,299, while a rejection may see prices retest $3,173.
Gold (XAU/USD) ended the week slightly higher at $3,204 after bouncing off $3,173. The metal has short term recovered from the May lows but still trapped in a descending channel on the 2 hour chart. Traders are now watching a critical test of the 50 period EMA at $3,219—a level that has been a lid on all the bullish attempts.
The recent candles are showing building momentum. Wicks are getting smaller and the bodies are getting bigger, a technical sign that buyers are taking control.
But the MACD is still in bearish territory, a counter point. The battle between short term recovery and the bigger picture bearish structure continues into the new trading week.
Upcoming Events Can Change the Technical Narrative
Next week is packed with US Federal Reserve speakers, PMI data and home sales reports. The combination of central bank tone and economic data will shape gold’s near term direction. Here’s what’s on the radar:
FOMC Speakers (May 20–23): Bostic, Jefferson, Daly and Williams will speak.
Thursday, May 23:
- Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 49.9 vs. Prev: 50.2)
- Flash Services PMI (Forecast: 50.7 vs. Prev: 50.8)
- Unemployment Claims (Forecast: 227K vs. Prev: 229K)
Friday, May 24:
- New Home Sales (Forecast: 696K vs. Prev: 724K)
- FOMC Financial Stability Report (Tentative)
A dovish tone from the Fed or weaker economic data can push yields lower—gold may break above $3,219.
Gold Technical Levels and Trade Scenarios
GOLD is still in a descending channel, the EMA and midline intersect at $3,219. A clean break above this level opens the way to $3,251 and $3,299. If rejected again, bears can retest $3,173 and possibly $3,123.
Levels to watch:
- Support: $3,173 → $3,123
- Resistance: $3,219 (EMA), then $3,251 → $3,299
- MACD: Below zero, but showing signs of a cross
Trade Setup:
- Bullish Bias: Entry above $3,219
- Targets: $3,251 and $3,299
- Stop-loss: Below $3,173
Bearish Bias: On EMA rejection or bearish candle below $3,204
- Targets: $3,173 and $3,123
- Stop-loss: Above $3,251
Gold Outlook
Gold’s direction next week will be determined by its ability to break above the $3,219 resistance zone with conviction. With big macro events ahead, any breakout or rejection will move quickly.
Wait for confirmation and respect the levels as volatility picks up. Let price lead, and size accordingly—this could be a make or break week for gold’s short term trend.
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