JSE Top 40 Tests Breakout at 86,113 as Rand Strengthens, Budget Hopes Build

SA40 up 0.08% intraday as rand hovers near 5 month high. The currency is supported by expectations around Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana.

Arslan Butt•Wednesday, May 21, 2025•1 min read

Quick overview

The SA40 index is up 0.08% intraday as the rand approaches a five-month high, supported by expectations surrounding the upcoming budget speech.
President Cyril Ramaphosa is set to meet with US President Donald Trump to mend diplomatic relations and discuss trade agreements.
Inflation and retail sales data will be released this week, providing insights into economic momentum and policy direction.
The SA40 index is testing resistance levels, with a potential breakout if it closes above 86,113.

SA40 up 0.08% intraday as rand hovers near 5 month high. The currency is supported by expectations around Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s budget speech to address 75 billion rand revenue gap. After scrapping VAT increase, investors are looking for alternative measures to restore fiscal discipline. Markets also expect changes to the central bank’s inflation target range.

JSE FTSE All Share Index: Up 0.80% in early trade
Rand Strength: Near 5 month high
Revenue Gap: 75 billion rand

Ramaphosa-Trump Meeting in Washington: High Stakes

Today President Cyril Ramaphosa meets US President Donald Trump at the White House to repair diplomatic ties. Relations have been strained since the US suspended aid and Trump’s comments on “white genocide” in SA.

The meeting will focus on rebuilding trust and trade relations, especially the delayed free trade agreement. A positive outcome will improve SA’s global standing and sentiment.

Suspended Aid: Adds to bilateral agenda
Trade Pact Talks: Breakthrough expected

Inflation Data, Bond Yields Show Cautious Optimism

Stats SA will release April inflation and March retail sales data this week. These will be watched for economic momentum and policy direction.

The bond market is holding up, with the 2030 bond yield up just 1 basis point to 8.87% – institutional investors are cautious.

Inflation, Retail Sales: Data this week
2030 Bond Yield: 8.87%

Technical Outlook: SA40 Eyes Breakout as Bulls Challenge Resistance

SA40 is testing the top of a rising wedge at 86,113. A daily close above this level could take the index to 86,794 and then 87,517. Momentum indicators are supportive of this view with the MACD crossing over and the 50-EMA at 84,748 rising.

JSE Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — JSE Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Levels to Watch:

Resistance: 86,113, 86,794, 87,517
Support: 85,379 and the trendline at 84,750

If the bulls can’t get a daily close above 86,113 the pattern will reverse and we could see a pullback to 84,750-85,000. Until then the trend is up.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Index & Commodity Analyst

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.