Daily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin Retreats Below $104K, XRP Shows Bullish Wave Patterns
Bitcoin dipped below $104,000 as Russia-Ukraine tensions weigh on risk assets, while regulatory developments from the SEC and Singapore
Quick overview
- Bitcoin has dipped below $104,000 amid geopolitical tensions and mixed regulatory signals from the SEC and Singapore.
- Ethereum is consolidating under $2,700, with a significant drop in supply on centralized exchanges indicating potential upward momentum.
- XRP faces bearish technical indicators but may have breakout opportunities if it surpasses the $2.56 level, according to wave count analysis.
- South Korea's upcoming presidential election promises pro-crypto policies, regardless of the outcome, which could positively impact crypto adoption.
Bitcoin dipped below $104,000 as Russia-Ukraine tensions weigh on risk assets, while regulatory developments from the SEC and Singapore create mixed signals for the crypto market. XRP faces technical headwinds despite wave count analysis suggesting potential breakout opportunities above $2.56.
Crypto Market Developments
As June starts, the market for cryptocurrencies is negotiating a difficult terrain of geopolitical concerns and legislative developments. With new rules released on May 29 implying certain offerings may not be securities, the US Securities and Exchange Commission comes under increasing fire for its changing posture on crypto staking services. Former SEC officials, including John Reed Stark, who described it as “a shameful abdication of its investor protection mission,” have sharply objected to this change.
Concurrent with this, Singapore’s Monetary Authority has imposed a strict June 30 deadline for local cryptocurrency service providers to stop providing digital token services to foreign markets. Companies breaking these new rules risk fines ranging from $200,000 to three-year jail time. The rule influences Singapore-incorporated businesses whose main business is not international token operations.
Positively for crypto adoption, South Korea’s forthcoming presidential contest on June 3 guarantees pro-crypto policies independent of the outcome. With Democratic Party nominee Lee Jae-myung suggesting to allow the nation’s $484 billion national pension fund to invest in crypto and People Power Party nominee Kim Moon-soo promising regulatory easing and expanded adoption, both main candidates have promised to simplify rules and increase crypto access.
Bitcoin at $106,000 Amid Cautious Mood
Currently trading around $106,336, Bitcoin BTC/USD is starting June cautiously and dropped below the psychologically significant $104,000 threshold. The fall coincides with Russia-Ukraine tensions returning to affect risk assets; US stocks open cautiously in view of geopolitical uncertainty.
Even with its most recent retreat from $112,000, the record high, Though this accomplishment received rather little market notice, Bitcoin completed May with its biggest monthly closing ever. Without more volatility triggers, trading firm QCP Capital predicts “muted price action in the near term” and has set a $100,000-$110,000 price corridor going forward.
Regarding Bitcoin’s near-term future, on-chain data shows a conflicting picture. With their Net Position Realized Cap decreasing from $28 billion to barely $2 billion by the end of May, concerning signals include major stablecoin withdrawals of over $1 billion from Binance implying diminished buying power and a substantial drop in long-term holding engagement. Large holders with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have also been progressively dumping while smaller retail cohorts keep increasing.
Positive signs still show, nevertheless, including rising BTC outflows from centralized exchanges; a recent 7,553 BTC withdrawal from Coinbase suggests fresh institutional interest. Furthermore implying low present profit-taking levels compared to past cycle highs is the Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss statistic.
Ethereum Consolidating Under $2,700
Rising more than 100% from cycle lows close to $1,600 to recent highs above $2,700, Ethereum ETH/USD has been one of the best-performing cryptocurrencies since early April. ETH is consolidating following multiple efforts to break above the $2,700 resistance zone.
On-chain statistics demonstrating that Ethereum’s supply on centralized exchanges has plummeted to its lowest level in seven years is the most positive indication for the currency. Usually, this development suggests lower selling pressure when investors migrate their holdings to long-term cold storage instead than being ready for sale. Markets may experience supply shocks driven by fewer coins remaining accessible on exchanges as demand rises, therefore driving quick upward moves.
Though the price keeps support above the 100 SMA at $2,559, technical analysis indicates ETH trading below the 34 EMA at $2,557, implying decreasing short-term momentum. The declining volume during the latest decline suggests that selling might lack great conviction. Along with the declining exchange supply, a confirmed breakout over $2,700 might set off strong buying and maybe start a new phase of upward momentum.
Given the strengthening foundations among the notable decrease in accessible supply on exchanges, market players are cautiously hopeful that Ethereum’s present correction is the last stop before a major run higher.
XRP Technicals Display Bearish Divergence
Currently trading at $2.21, over 18% below its May peak of $2.65, XRP presents a more difficult technical picture. On the daily chart, the token has developed an inverted V-shaped corrective pattern suggesting a possible 20% drop toward the $1.70 support level.
Many gloomy signals point to this negative situation. XRP’s price action and its weekly RSI show a bearish divergence; prices are forming lower lows while the RSI dropped from 92 to 51, usually suggesting weakness in the dominant uptrend. XRP Ledger network activity has also reduced noticeably; daily active addresses went from a 2025 peak of 608,000 to roughly 31,200 while new addresses plummeted from 15,800 daily to 4,400.
Wave count study offers a more hopeful long-term perspective, though. Technical analyst Charting Prodigy finds $2.56 as a crucial trigger level and notes XRP is clearly following an Elliott Wave pattern. A confirmed breach above this could indicate the beginning of a fast markup period, therefore driving XRP towards the $2.9 to $3.4 range.
Analyst Egrag Crypto’s more optimistic forecasts draw on a macro ascending channel XRP has respected since 2016. With targets ranging from $10 to as high as $55, akin to the rapid rise in 2017 when XRP skyrocketed from under 1 cent to its all-time high of $3.84, the study predicts that a decisive move over the 21-week exponential moving average might unleash exponential gains.
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