Quick overview

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Although the peso began the year under pressure from President Donald Trump’s trade policies, improving investor sentiment has helped it reach its strongest level in 10 months.

The Mexican peso appreciated against the U.S. dollar at the start of the week, marking its sixth consecutive session of gains and closing its best quarter since 2020. Investors remained focused on trade negotiations between the U.S. and its key partners.

The exchange rate ended the session at 18.7654 pesos per dollar, compared to 18.8529 on Friday, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). That represented an appreciation of 8.75 centavos, or 0.46%.

The dollar traded within a range of 18.8994 (high) and 18.8002 (low). Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.64% to 96.78.

Strong Q2 Performance

Traders are increasingly betting that the U.S. will announce further agreements with its main trade partners as the July 9 deadline set by President Trump approaches. Canada, for example, removed a digital services tax as a gesture of cooperation.

Amid these developments and rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, the peso extended its winning streak. From 19.1683 pesos per dollar on June 20, the currency has gained 40.29 centavos, or 2.10%.

Additional momentum came after the end of the 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran. Over the month, the peso advanced 63.03 centavos, or 3.25%, from 19.3957, driving a quarterly gain of 1.69 pesos, or 8.28%—its strongest three-month performance since 2020.

Positive Momentum Ahead

Despite starting the year weighed down by U.S. trade tensions, the peso has staged a strong recovery, and analysts now see a growing likelihood of continued appreciation.

With today’s move, the peso broke through the important 18.80 level—a key short-term support that had held in recent weeks. This opens the door for further gains, potentially targeting new yearly lows.

Technically, the exchange rate has broken below a 15-month Fibonacci support level and may now test the 18.50 zone.