CRCL Stock Loses Steam: Failed Rally, Insider Sales, and Technicals Point to $100
After soaring in June, Circle Internet Group’s stock has entered a prolonged correction, with technical signals and insider selling adding t
Quick overview
- Circle Internet Group's stock surged nearly 500% in June 2025 but has since declined by 60% to around $120 per share.
- Despite beating earnings expectations, market sentiment has turned bearish, with analysts expressing caution and JPMorgan lowering its price target to $89.
- The stock's technical indicators show a bearish trend, with the 20-day SMA acting as resistance and major support anticipated around $100.
- Insider selling, including a notable sale by President Heath Tarbert, has contributed to the negative sentiment surrounding the stock.
After soaring in June, Circle Internet Group’s stock has entered a prolonged correction, with technical signals and insider selling adding to bearish pressure.
A Meteoric Rise Followed by a Steep Fall
In June 2025, Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) surged nearly 500%, briefly touching $300 per share and ranking among the best-performing stocks on the NYSE that month. However, since mid-July, the stock has been on a steady decline. A failed rally attempt near $263 was followed by consistent selling, with shares down around 9% today at $120, marking a 60% loss from the highs.
Earnings Beat but Sentiment Shifts
On August 12, the company reported FQ2 2025 results that topped expectations—beating revenue by $13.36 million and EPS by $0.78. Despite this outperformance, the market reaction has been muted. Several analysts have maintained bullish outlooks, but skepticism is rising. Notably, JPMorgan revised its price target down to $89, signaling caution.
CRCL Chart Daily – The 20 SMA Acting As Resistance Confirms Bearish Trend
From a charting perspective, the 20-day SMA (gray) has flipped from support to resistance, a classic sign of weakening momentum. The stock’s inability to reclaim this level suggests the bearish trend remains intact. If selling pressure continues, the next major support zone lies around $100, a level traders are watching closely.
Circle Internet Group Q2 Earnings Highlights
Revenue Growth
- Reported 53% increase in revenue, rising to $658.1 million from $430 million in the same period last year.
- Growth was largely driven by strong demand for stablecoins.
- Circulation of USDC, Circle’s flagship stablecoin, surged 90% YoY, reaching $61.3 billion in circulation.
Profitability and Net Results
- Swung to a net loss of $482.1 million (or –$4.48 per share) compared to $32.9 million profit (or breakeven per share) a year ago.
- Loss was primarily due to non-cash IPO-related charges:
- $424 million in stock-based compensation.
- $167 million fair value adjustment tied to convertible debt.
Forward Guidance
- Forecasts $75–85 million in other revenue for the remainder of 2025.
- Expects adjusted operating expenses between $475 million and $490 million.
- Projects USDC circulation to grow at ~40% CAGR over the business cycle
Strategic Moves and Expanding Partnerships
Beyond the stock’s volatility, Circle continues to build its ecosystem. The company, best known for issuing stablecoins like USDC and EURC, recently closed a $1.2 billion IPO and launched the Circle Payments Network, attracting interest from more than 100 financial institutions. Partnerships with major players including FIS, Corpay, and Binance highlight its ongoing drive for adoption across global finance.
Insider Activity Adds Pressure
Adding to the cautious sentiment, Circle Internet Group disclosed that on August 18, President Heath Tarbert sold 31,925 shares worth approximately $4.06 million at an average price of $127.08. Following the sale, Tarbert still directly owns more than 605,000 shares, valued near $77 million, but his overall stake has been reduced by about 5%, which some investors interpret as a vote of reduced confidence in the near term.
Conclusion: Circle Internet Group has quickly shifted from market darling to underperformer within weeks. Despite strong earnings and expanding strategic partnerships, the combination of analyst downgrades, insider selling, and technical breakdowns has fueled a sharp retreat. With support now in focus near $100, investors will be closely monitoring whether Circle stabilizes—or if the decline extends further.
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