Forex Signals Brief Sept 10: US PPI Inflation Falls Pre-CPI, Man United Earnings After Hours

Quick overview

Gold returned to its highs, the dollar strengthened, and stocks continued to rise as traders positioned themselves ahead of U.S. producer price data on Tuesday, which posted a decent decline, causing markets to become cautious.

Gold (XAU/USD): Rally Stalls After Record Highs

Gold prices briefly broke into fresh record territory at $3,674 before retreating sharply and closing lower at $1,622. The move reflected a mix of profit-taking and recalibrated expectations around U.S. monetary policy after revised labor market data signaled slower employment growth. Despite Powell’s earlier warning at Jackson Hole about payroll revisions, the lack of a major Fed rate path adjustment weighed on bullion’s momentum.

U.S. Dollar and Yields: Recovery Amid Data Noise

The U.S. dollar initially slipped on the Bureau of Labor Statistics revision, which revealed job growth overstated by 911,000 through March—a 0.6% cut in overall employment. While consensus expectations had already prepared markets for a downward adjustment, the greenback only dipped briefly before recovering and advancing steadily. Rising Treasury yields added further support, signaling that traders see limited near-term chances of a 50 bps Fed cut despite the weaker jobs backdrop.

Equities: Nasdaq Extends Record Run

Wall Street closed on a positive note, with the Nasdaq reaching another record high as large-cap tech stocks drew late-session buying. The S&P 500 and Dow also advanced modestly, extending recent momentum, while the Russell 2000 lagged, reflecting ongoing concerns over smaller firms’ sensitivity to higher borrowing costs. Market sentiment remains anchored by expectations for eventual Fed easing but is now tied closely to inflation readings.

FX Market: Euro Under Pressure

The euro struggled, pressured by ongoing French political uncertainty, although it managed to outperform the Swiss franc. Broader FX action was subdued, with markets largely treading water ahead of inflation releases. Traders remain cautious on the euro’s trajectory as structural risks and political noise weigh on sentiment.

Key Market Events to Watch Today

China Inflation: Mixed Signs of Recovery

China’s July CPI printed flat year-on-year, improving from June’s -0.1% contraction. Core inflation, however, climbed to 0.8%, its highest level in 17 months. Analysts caution that headwinds—ranging from the persistent real estate slump to weak consumer confidence—continue to hold back any meaningful inflation rebound. August CPI is expected to slip back into negative territory at around -0.1% YoY, reinforcing a disinflationary trend despite targeted policy support.

US Producer Price Index (PPI) – August 2025

The August PPI report showed a softer-than-expected inflation print across both headline and core measures, with month-on-month prices even dipping into negative territory. The slowdown suggests easing producer-level cost pressures, which may support the Federal Reserve’s case for maintaining or even accelerating rate cuts.

However, sticky elements remain, as the broader ex-food, energy, and trade gauge held steady at 2.8% y/y, indicating underlying inflation persistence. Markets will likely weigh this moderation in PPI against upcoming CPI data to refine expectations for the Fed’s policy path.

• Headline PPI y/y: +2.6% vs +3.3% expected (prior +3.3%)
• Headline PPI m/m: -0.1% vs +0.3% expected (prior +0.9%)
• Core PPI (ex-food & energy) y/y: +2.8% vs +3.5% expected (prior +3.7%)
• Core PPI m/m: -0.1% vs +0.3% expected (prior +0.9%)
• PPI ex-food, energy & trade y/y: +2.8% vs +2.8% prior
• PPI ex-food, energy & trade m/m: +0.3% vs +0.6% prior

Earnings on Watch Today

• Manchester United (MANU)

• Q4 2025 earnings report

• Scheduled before market open (BMO)

• Expected EPS: -0.07

• Lesaka Technologies (LSAK)

• Q4 2025 earnings report

• Scheduled after market close (AMC)

• Expected EPS: 0.04

Forex Signals Update

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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