XAU/USD – Daily Chart
Forex Signals Sept 19: Stocks Hit Records Post FED, Focus Turns to BoJ Today
Markets showed a split reaction to the Fed’s latest move, with bonds and currencies reflecting a hawkish tilt while today we had the BOJ...
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Last updated: Friday, September 19, 2025
Quick overview
- The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut led to a selloff in bonds and a stronger U.S. dollar, particularly against the yen.
- Equities, however, showed resilience with major indices reaching record highs, driven by a strong performance in small-cap stocks.
- Commodities experienced a slight pullback, with gold prices dropping significantly after hitting record highs due to profit-taking.
- Looking ahead, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its short-term rate, while UK retail sales are projected to show modest growth.
Markets showed a split reaction to the Fed’s latest move, with bonds and currencies reflecting a hawkish tilt while today we had the Bank of Japan Meeting.
Fed Fallout and Market Response
The Federal Reserve’s decision, framed as a “risk management” rate cut, triggered a selloff in bonds and led the yield curve to turn less dovish. The U.S. dollar strengthened sharply, particularly against the yen, which rebounded to 1.48 after briefly slipping to 1.4550 the day before. Sterling also weakened, weighed down by dovish comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey following the Fed’s announcement.
Stock Market Momentum
Equities told a very different story. Major indices opened firmly and pushed to record levels, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 notching fresh highs. The Russell 2000 was especially strong, climbing 2.5%, a sign of renewed investor appetite for rate-sensitive small caps. This resilience reflects the powerful “buy-the-dip” trend that has dominated trading since April. Among individual names, Intel delivered a striking 25% jump at the open after news of a $5 billion investment from Nvidia, with much of the gain holding throughout the session.
Commodities Pull Back
Commodities cooled off slightly as gold edged lower and oil prices slipped. Crude’s weakness was partly linked to reports that former President Trump had convinced European leaders to scale back LNG imports, though oil was spared from the immediate cutback. His more hawkish stance toward Russia also added a layer of geopolitical risk to energy markets.
Key Market Events to Watch Today
Attention now shifts to a busy Friday schedule. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to hold its short-term rate steady at 0.50%, with little chance of a hike this time, though sticky inflation leaves open the possibility of a move later in the year. Hours before that decision, Japanese CPI data will be released, with headline inflation likely easing to 2.9% while core inflation is expected to remain above 3%, underscoring ongoing price pressures.
In the UK, August retail sales are forecast to show modest growth of 0.3% month-on-month, following July’s stronger pace. Retailers have enjoyed a boost from favorable weather and rate cuts over the summer, but uncertainty looms ahead of the “golden quarter” as the upcoming Budget and tax concerns may weigh on consumer confidence just before the holiday season.
Last week, markets were quite volatile again, with gold soaring to $3,6065. EUR/USD continued the upward move toward 1.17.80, while main indices closed higher again. The moves weren’t too big though, and we opened 35 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 23 winning signals and 12 losing ones.
Gold Reverses Sharply, $80 Down
Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate decrease as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. Earlier this week, gold jumped beyond $3,700 and reached $3,707.42 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease to 4.25%. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $3,627, a $80 decline from the new all-time high. As traders locked in profits after the rally driven by dovish predictions, there was a sudden fall.
USD/JPY Continues Trading in the Range
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. The move underscored persistent volatility as traders weighed Japan’s intervention risks against evolving Fed expectations.
USD/JPY – Weekly Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Continues the Rebound Off the 20 SMA
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down to $113,000 before recovering above $116,000 last week, however sellers returned and sent BTC below $110,000, however we saw a rebound off the 20 weekly SMA (gray) yesterday.
BTC/USD – Weekly chart
Ethereum Climbs Above $4,500
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. However buying resumed and on Sunday ETH/USD printed another record at $4,941. However we saw a retreat to $,000 lows over the weekend, but yesterday buyers returned.
ETH/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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