Forex Signals October 1: Euro CPI Inflation, US ADP Jobs and Manufacturing PMIs Today

Today there are several highlights in the economic calendar, such as US ADP employment, Eurozone CPI inflation and manufacturing PMI data fo

Written by: Skerdian Meta • Tuesday, September 30, 2025 • 3 min read

• Last updated: Tuesday, September 30, 2025

EZ CPI: Price Pressures Seen Bouncing by 2 Points

Quick overview

Key economic data releases today include US ADP employment, Eurozone CPI inflation, and manufacturing PMI for August.
The U.S. dollar weakened as traders adjusted positions ahead of macroeconomic reports, while the Australian dollar strengthened after the RBA's hawkish stance.
Gold prices surged due to dollar weakness and safe-haven demand, briefly reaching $3,871 per ounce, while crude oil prices fell amid OPEC production rumors.
Equities ended Q3 positively, with the S&P 500 leading gains, reflecting optimism over corporate earnings despite economic uncertainties.

Live BTC/USD Chart

BTC/USD

0.0000

MARKETS TREND

TRADE BTC/USD

Today there are several highlights in the economic calendar, such as US ADP employment, Eurozone CPI inflation and manufacturing PMI data for August.

The U.S. dollar ended mostly weaker yesterday as traders repositioned ahead of key macroeconomic releases. The Australian dollar emerged stronger after the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged but adopted a more hawkish tone, hinting at potential tightening down the road.

U.S. data offered contrasting signals. JOLTS job openings came in slightly firmer than expected, though they remain near the lower end of recent ranges, underscoring a gradual cooling in the labor market. Consumer confidence fell short of forecasts and slipped below the prior month’s level, reflecting ongoing concerns over household spending power.

Commodities Diverge: Gold Rallies, Oil Retreats

Crude oil prices pulled back after reports suggested that OPEC might increase production sooner than expected—rumors later denied by the group. Nevertheless, oil futures finished lower by $0.94 at $62.51 a barrel.

Gold, meanwhile, extended its upward momentum as renewed dollar weakness and firmer bond bids spurred safe-haven demand. European buying led prices higher, briefly touching $3,871 per ounce before mild U.S. profit-taking. The rally soon resumed, fueling speculation that the precious metal could approach the $4,000 threshold in the coming weeks.

Equities End Q3 on a High Note

Wall Street finished in positive territory, with broad-based gains led by the S&P 500:

Dow Jones: +81.82 points (+0.18%) to 46,397.89
S&P 500: +27.25 points (+0.41%) to 6,688.46
NASDAQ Composite: +68.86 points (+0.30%) to 22,660.01

The uptick reflects renewed optimism over corporate earnings and hopes for a soft economic landing despite looming policy uncertainties.

Key Data Ahead: Wednesday’s Watchlist

Eurozone: CPI is expected to inch higher to 2.3% y/y, while core inflation likely stays flat. The ECB’s dovish tone at its recent meeting leaves the door open for a possible December rate cut if price pressures keep easing.
Eurozone, U.K., U.S.: Manufacturing PMI readings are due, with the U.K.’s final figure forecast at 46.2, still in contraction, and the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI seen at 49.1, just below the expansion threshold.
U.S.: ISM services PMI is expected to remain steady at 52.0, signaling modest growth.
ADP Non-Farm Employment: A key preview

Forex Signals Update

Last week, markets were quite volatile again, with gold soaring to $3,6065. EUR/USD continued the pullback move toward 1.1450, while main indices closed higher again. The moves weren’t too big though, and we opened 35 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 23 winning signals and 12 losing ones.

Gold Gets Closer to $3,800

Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate decrease as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. Earlier this week, gold jumped beyond $3,700 and reached $3,707.42 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease to 4.25%. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $3,627, a $80 decline from the new all-time high. As traders locked in profits after the rally driven by dovish predictions, there was a sudden fall but buyers returned on Friday pushing the price $60 higher. Yesterday buyers continued to push and XAU reached another record high at $3,871.

XAU/USD – Daily Chart

USD/JPY Continues to Bounce in the Range

Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. The move underscored persistent volatility as traders weighed Japan’s intervention risks against evolving Fed expectations.

USD/JPY – Weekly Chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin Returns Above $110K

Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down to $113,000 before recovering above $116,000 last week, however sellers returned and sent BTC below $110,000, breaking the 20 weekly SMA (gray) as well.

BTC/USD – Weekly chart

Ethereum Returns Above $4,o00 Again

Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. However buying resumed and on Sunday ETH/USD printed another record at $4,941 but we saw a retreat which sent ETH below $4,000 yesterday.

ETH/USD – Weekly Chart

Check out our free forex signals
Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
Open a FREE Trading Account

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.