Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD Soars 47% in 2025, Eyes $3,933 Next
Gold held its record high on Wednesday, trading at $3,871 an ounce as investors piled into safe-haven assets with a US government...
Quick overview
- Gold reached a record high of $3,871 an ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets amid a US government shutdown and weak labor data.
- The US Dollar Index fell to a one-week low, making gold more attractive to overseas buyers.
- Expectations of a 25bps rate cut by the Fed in October and December have increased due to soft labor numbers and political uncertainty.
- Technically, gold is in a bullish trend, with key support at $3,820 and immediate resistance around $3,888-$3,912.
Gold held its record high on Wednesday, trading at $3,871 an ounce as investors piled into safe-haven assets with a US government shutdown and weak labour data. The US Dollar Index fell to a one-week low making dollar denominated gold more attractive to overseas buyers.
The shutdown, caused by gridlock in Washington, has halted key government services and is threatening to delay critical data releases including Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. This political impasse combined with soft labour numbers from August has increased expectations of a 25bps rate cut in October and another in December.
According to Nicholas Frappell, global head of institutional markets at ABC Refinery, the gold bull case is still intact. “A weaker dollar, political uncertainty and global tensions are creating a strong bid for gold,” he said. “We could see $3,900-$4,000 in the short term.”
Fed Cuts, Dollar Weakness Boosts Outlook
Recent data showed only marginal growth in job openings and a slowdown in hiring, supporting the view the Fed will pivot further towards easing. The ADP Employment Report later today will provide more clarity.
Michael Hsueh, precious metals analyst at Deutsche Bank, warned a sharp rebound in the dollar or unexpected hawkish Fed comments could temper gold’s gains. But with gold up 47% this year sentiment is firmly on the bullish side.
Gold (XAU/USD) Technicals: Bulls in Control
From a technical perspective gold is respecting its rising channel, forming higher lows and higher highs. Price bounced off support at $3,820 and is heading towards $3,871.
- Key support: $3,840-$3,820 then $3,798 (50-SMA)
- Immediate resistance: $3,888-$3,912
- Extended target: $3,933 if breakout holds
Candlestick pattern is strengthening. Consecutive bullish candles look like a three white soldiers, often a sign of strong continuation. Momentum, measured by the RSI at 64, shows buyers are in control but near overbought.
For newbies wait for a daily close above $3,888. That will confirm the momentum and open up to $3,912-$3,933 with stops below $3,840. If resistance holds and price
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