Gold Price Prediction: $3,933 in Sight as Fed Cuts and Shutdown Fuel Rally
Gold is holding near record highs as US interest rate cuts and political uncertainty support. Spot gold is at $3,862 and US Dec gold...
Quick overview
- Gold prices are near record highs, supported by US interest rate cuts and political uncertainty.
- Weak labor market data has increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with traders pricing in a 100% chance of a 25bp cut this month.
- The ongoing US government shutdown is contributing to safe-haven flows into gold, reinforcing its role as a store of value.
- Technical analysis shows key resistance levels at $3,888, $3,912, and $3,933, with a bullish bias as long as prices remain above $3,792.
Gold is holding near record highs as US interest rate cuts and political uncertainty support. Spot gold is at $3,862 and US Dec gold is down 0.2% to $3,891.40.
The latest catalyst was weak labor market data. Private payrolls fell 32,000 in September, following a downwardly revised 3,000 in August, and is fueling bets the Fed will cut soon. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in a 100% chance of a 25bp cut this month.
“The combination of softer employment figures and the US government shutdown is keeping gold well bid,” said Matt Simpson, senior analyst at City Index. “Funds are increasing their net longs and while we’re not at extremes, positioning is clearly strong.”
The partial US government shutdown, which has furloughed thousands of federal workers and may delay Friday’s non-farm payrolls release, is adding to the uncertainty. Political gridlock is driving safe-haven flows and gold’s role as a store of value when confidence in fiscal stability wanes.
Traders Watch Key Resistance
Gold has been in a strong uptrend since mid-September. A series of higher highs and higher lows is a bullish structure, with gold consolidating just below $3,888.
The 50-day SMA is rising and the RSI is at 61, which is easing from overbought. Key resistance is at $3,888, $3,912 and the all-time high zone of $3,933. Support is at $3,854, $3,831 and $3,812. A break below $3,792 would unwind the bullish channel.
Trade Setup: Pullback-Buy
For the trade, the setup is a pullback-buy. Enter near $3,831-$3,854 on support confirmation. Upside targets are $3,912 and $3,933. Stop-loss is just below $3,792.
- Resistance: $3,888, $3,912, $3,933
- Support: $3,854, $3,831, $3,812
- Technical bias: Bullish
If gold can close above $3,912, $3,933 looks likely, with fresh highs if rate cuts and political risks intensify. For now, buyers are in control but watch for spinning tops or shooting stars near resistance to signal exhaustion.
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