Gold Price Forecast: $4,300 in Sight as Fed Cut Bets and Trade Risks Rise
Gold (XAU/USD) managed to push all the way up to around $4,210 during Thursday's Asian trading session, and as you might have guessed...
Quick overview
- Gold (XAU/USD) reached around $4,210, driven by expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts and escalating US-China trade tensions.
- Lower interest rate expectations are boosting gold's appeal as a safe haven asset amid concerns over economic conditions.
- Technical indicators suggest gold remains in an uptrend, with potential targets of $4,240 to $4,300 if it maintains support above $4,200.
- Traders are advised to consider long positions above $4,210, targeting higher levels while managing risk with stop-loss orders.
Gold (XAU/USD) managed to push all the way up to around $4,210 during Thursday’s Asian trading session, and as you might have guessed it extended its rally towards some brand new record highs. All of this is really no surprise given the fact that traders are getting ready for US Federal Reserve rate cuts and renewed US-China trade tensions – and those have been fuelling the demand for safe haven assets.
Lower interest rate expectations are still really the main driving force behind gold’s strength. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently said some pretty telling words – weakening labor conditions are basically a growing risk to the economy, which is exactly why people are expecting 2 more 25-basis-point cuts this year. And not just that, but further easing is actually being projected for 2026.
When interest rates fall, non-yielding assets like gold of course become a lot more attractive – as investors start shifting their money out of bonds and cash holdings.
Trade Tensions Keep Safe Havens in a Boil
US-China trade friction is getting worse by the day and it’s all just amplifying safe haven flows even more. Both countries are getting ready to slap on new port fees on cargo shipments from October 14th – that’s gonna push up logistics costs and put a lot of pressure on global supply chains.
But to be honest, things are already pretty tense when it comes to global growth concerns – investors are getting ready for some real volatility and gold is being seen as a hedge against all the potential disruptions.
But still, traders are being super cautious before the Federal Reserve puts out some more commentary today. If the Fed comes out and sounds a bit too optimistic, it could put some short-term pressure on the US dollar and maybe limit gold’s near-term upside. On the other hand, if they sound a bit more dovish – then we could easily see gold getting closer to the $4,300 level.
Gold Technical Outlook: Eye On That $4,300 Target
From a straight-up technical standpoint, gold is still clearly in an uptrend – trading around $4,219 within a rising ascending channel on the one hour chart. The latest pullback from the $4,240 area feels like a pretty healthy correction to me – and that 20-EMA at $4,209 and the 50-EMA at $4,176 are both supporting the broader bullish structure.
Price action continues to make higher highs and higher lows – which is a really key bullish signal. The spinning top candles in resistance just indicate some temporary indecision before we see a potential continuation upward. If the buyers can keep gold above $4,200, then I think we’ll see a push towards $4,240 – $4,270. If gold breaks above this zone for good, it will probably expose $4,300 where people might start looking to take some profits.
The RSI is at 57.5 and is still pretty far from overbought levels – so I think there’s still some room for more gains. Rebound in RSI from its midline often comes before renewed momentum. But if prices fall below $4,170, then sentiment could weaken and bring $4,145 and $4,110 into play.
Trade Setup:
If you’re a buyer, you might consider going long above $4,210 – $4,220, targeting $4,270 – $4,300 and with a stop-loss below $4,170. The structure is still pretty much in favour of buying in any dips while EMAs keep going in an uptrend.
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