Quick overview

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Bitcoin bounced above the $111K at the first trading session of the week.

MSTR will monitor Bitcoin’s recovery this week, but be prepared for a decline—trade tariffs are still a wild card. It is riskier than direct Bitcoin/ETFs because of leverage, but fundamentals support recovery (no forced sales; BTC scarcity intact). Hold for $200K BTC targets (4x MSTR upside) if you’re long; if not, wait for mNAV stabilization. Don’t ask for financial advice.

President Trump’s announcement of 100% more tariffs on China escalated trade tensions and caused a severe flash crash in Bitcoin on October 10-11.

Bitcoin fell from a peak of about $125,000 with a 14–17% drop in just a few hours. This resulted in the loss of approximately $19 billion in leveraged positions across cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin has partially recovered to between $111,000 and $115,000, holding above a crucial support level of $110,000 but falling short of a full recovery.

Technical analysis indicates a sell as the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout zone ($107,000–$110,000) is retested and the RSI is close to 30 on daily charts, indicating oversold conditions.

Strategy formerly known as MicroStrategy had 640,250 BTC (about 1% of supply) was held in August 2025 at an average cost of $73,000, making it worth about $71 billion as of October 16 (down from $80 billion before the crash).

This amounts to unrealized gains of about $21 billion so far this year, but the October decline erased about $10 billion in market value for their holdings in a single week. Although its stock has somewhat decoupled from Bitcoin due to eroding premiums, the company’s Bitcoin yield has remained strong at 91 percent annualized since 2020, outpacing many tech peers. During the flash crash week (October 7–14), MSTR stock plummeted more than Bitcoin, plunging -18 percent and closing at $297 on October 11, the lowest since early 2024.

The market NAV premium, or mNAV, has decreased from 3.4x in November 2024 to 1.32x-1.6x at this time, indicating a decline in investor trust in the “leveraged BTC proxy” argument. It trades similarly to a pure ETF (no premium for growth) below 1x. ~1.5-2x is the beta to Bitcoin (MSTR drops more on).