BTC Price Forecast: Bitcoin Starts the Comeback Amid Record Inflow, Supply Squeeze
After one of the most volatile weeks in its history, institutional buying and rekindled hope for U.S. rate cuts have helped Bitcoin recover
Quick overview
- Bitcoin has recovered above $110,000 after a volatile week, driven by institutional buying and optimism for U.S. rate cuts.
- The cryptocurrency experienced a dramatic drop to $104,000 following a tariff announcement, but found support at the 50-week Simple Moving Average.
- Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs reached $2.72 billion, with significant contributions from BlackRock's IBIT, helping to stabilize the market.
- Positive macroeconomic conditions and potential regulatory shifts are contributing to a bullish outlook for Bitcoin's future price movements.
Live BTC/USD Chart
After one of the most volatile weeks in its history, institutional buying and rekindled hope for U.S. rate cuts have helped Bitcoin recover above $110,000.
A Wild Week of Volatility and Resilience
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) endured a historic rollercoaster, surging to an all-time high above $126,000 before crashing to $104,000 in the wake of President Donald Trump’s 100% tariff announcement on Chinese imports. The move sparked global panic, wiping nearly $380 billion off Bitcoin’s market value and triggering the largest crypto liquidation event ever recorded.
Despite the turmoil, BTC stabilized near $114,000 as investors re-entered the market, reinforcing Bitcoin’s enduring appeal during macroeconomic uncertainty.
Technical Support and Supply Dynamics Tighten the Market
After the sharp drop, Bitcoin found strong support at the 50-week Simple Moving Average — a key long-term floor that has historically marked cycle bottoms. This bounce signaled renewed confidence in the ongoing bull market.
Meanwhile, exchange balances have declined sharply, with over 45,000 BTC—worth nearly $4.8 billion—withdrawn since early October. This mass exodus into cold storage reflects both tightening supply and investor conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term strength.
BTC/USD Chart Weekly – The 50 SMA Is Holding
Momentum indicators are now flashing bullish signals, with the stochastic oscillator turning upward, hinting that BTC/USD could retest the $130,000 zone soon.
Institutional Inflows Cushion the Decline
The latest volatility highlighted the growing influence of institutional investors. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.72 billion in net inflows during the week ending October 10, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, which alone absorbed $2.63 billion.
Fidelity’s FBTC saw nearly $89 million in inflows, while outflows from other ETFs like GBTC and ARK 21Shares remained minimal. The surge in demand helped BTC stay above the critical $100,000 psychological threshold.
With nearly 800,000 BTC held, IBIT now manages almost $100 billion, cementing its place as the fastest-growing ETF in U.S. history.
Policy Tailwinds and Shifting Macro Sentiment
The broader macro backdrop has become increasingly supportive. Expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut this week have lifted investor sentiment and weakened the dollar, which typically benefits risk assets like Bitcoin.
Adding to the bullish tone, U.S. President Donald Trump’s pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) has been welcomed by the crypto community, signaling a potential softening in regulatory tone.
Meanwhile, countries across Southeast Asia — including Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines — are exploring adding Bitcoin to national reserves, reinforcing its status as a global hedge asset.
Conclusion: Bitcoin Poised for a New Phase of Momentum
Despite a week of chaos, Bitcoin’s recovery above $110K underscores its resilience and maturing market structure. With institutional capital flowing in, Fed easing expectations building, and global adoption accelerating, BTC may be preparing for its next major leg higher — potentially testing fresh record highs before year-end.
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