Mexican Peso Snaps Losing Streak—Defies Stronger Dollar
Technical analysts view 18.40 pesos per dollar as a pivotal level, given the heavier trading volumes seen there last month.
Quick overview
- The Mexican peso strengthened on Monday, closing at 18.4847 pesos per dollar after four days of losses.
- Despite the peso's recovery, it remains within a medium-term range of 18.30 to 18.60 pesos per dollar.
- Remittances to Mexico fell for the sixth consecutive month, totaling $45.68 billion this year, a 5.5% decline year-over-year.
- Analysts predict weak economic growth of 0.5% in 2025 while slightly lowering the inflation forecast to 3.78%.
The Mexican peso strengthened on Monday after four consecutive sessions of losses, defying a stronger U.S. dollar as investors look ahead to this week’s key interest rate decision by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico).
The exchange rate closed at 18.4847 pesos per dollar, compared with 18.5796 on Friday, according to official Banxico data. The move left the peso with a 0.51% gain, equivalent to 9.49 centavos.
Throughout the session, the dollar traded in a narrow range between a high of 18.5668 and a low of 18.4652 pesos. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six major currencies, edged up 0.08% to 99.88 points.
Earlier in the day, Banxico reported that remittances to Mexico—one of the country’s most important sources of income for millions of families—fell slightly in September, marking the sixth consecutive monthly decline. So far this year, remittances have totaled $45.68 billion, representing a 5.5% year-over-year contraction.
At the same time, private-sector analysts maintained their outlook for weak economic growth of just 0.5% in 2025 but slightly lowered their inflation forecast to 3.78% from 3.85%, according to the central bank’s latest survey.
The peso’s recovery follows a four-day losing streak in which it weakened nearly 1%, pressured by diminished expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and soft domestic GDP data. Despite the rebound, traders note that the USD/MXN pair remains within its medium-term range of 18.30 to 18.60, a zone that has contained price action throughout October.
Technical analysts view 18.40 pesos per dollar as a pivotal level, given the heavier trading volumes seen there last month. Unless new catalysts emerge, the exchange rate could remain range-bound ahead of Banxico’s upcoming decision, which may determine the peso’s next direction.
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