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Forex Signals Nov 4: RBA Holds, Markets Brace for Shopify, Uber and AMD Earnings
Investor focus is fixed on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision and a series of earnings reports from AMD, Shopify, and...
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Last updated: Tuesday, November 4, 2025
Quick overview
- Investor attention is centered on the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision and upcoming earnings reports from AMD, Shopify, and Uber.
- Trading momentum was subdued on Monday, with weak U.S. manufacturing data raising concerns about industrial sentiment.
- The RBA is expected to maintain its cash rate at 3.60%, reflecting uncertainty in balancing growth and inflation pressures.
- Earnings from AMD, Shopify, and Uber are critical this week, as they may influence market sentiment amid tightening financial conditions.
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Investor focus is fixed on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision and a series of earnings reports from AMD, Shopify, and Uber, which will all assess the delicate state of market sentiment this week.
Muted Momentum and Weak Data Stir Investor Anxiety
Trading momentum remained thin on Monday, with price action subdued across major markets. The day’s only notable developments came from weak U.S. manufacturing data — the ISM Manufacturing Index missed expectations, underscoring a deeper slump in industrial sentiment. The lone bright spot was a modest decline in prices paid, hinting that inflationary pressure might be easing slightly. However, nearly every industry comment in the report pointed to mounting frustration over tariffs, signaling that trade headwinds remain a major drag on business confidence.
The U.S. dollar strengthened early in the session, though gains faded as the day progressed, particularly against commodity-linked currencies and the British pound. Meanwhile, the Swiss franc slipped after softer inflation readings, suggesting waning pricing pressures in Europe.
Equities Struggle Despite Big Tech Strength
U.S. equities opened higher, boosted by strong performances from Amazon, Tesla, Eli Lilly, and Nvidia, yet market breadth was again disappointing. The S&P 500 eked out only minor gains, while the Russell 2000 slid 0.4%, reflecting persistent investor unease. Despite isolated bright spots, risk appetite remains fragile as traders brace for a wave of critical earnings and central bank decisions this week.
Key Market Events to Watch Today: RBA Meeting and Earnings Calendar Overview
RBA Meeting: Holding Pattern Signals Caution, Not Confidence
All eyes now turn to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which will announce its latest policy decision on Tuesday. A Reuters poll shows unanimous expectations for the RBA to keep the cash rate unchanged at 3.60%, with markets assigning a 92% probability to a pause — a sharp shift from earlier in the week when a rate cut still seemed plausible.
Although inflation has eased significantly since its 2022 highs, the RBA has warned that underlying price pressures remain sticky, and Q3 CPI data is likely to come in hotter than previously anticipated. The decision to hold rates reflects growing uncertainty rather than renewed confidence, as policymakers face the difficult task of balancing slowing growth with stubborn inflation.
Earnings on Watch: AMD, Shopify, and Uber Step into the Spotlight
Amid the cautious tone, traders are also watching key Q3 earnings from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Shopify, and Uber Technologies. These reports are expected to provide critical insight into how consumer demand and corporate margins are holding up against tightening financial conditions.
With economic data softening and central banks showing signs of hesitation, investors are bracing for volatility. A weak showing from these high-profile companies could amplify downside risks and further dampen sentiment across both tech and consumer sectors.
Upcoming Earnings Highlights
Shopify Inc. (SHOP)
- Expected EPS: $0.34
- Timing: Before Market Open (BMO)
- Shopify is under scrutiny as investors look for sustained revenue momentum after a volatile summer in e-commerce. Margins and subscription growth will be key metrics as competition from Amazon and Temu intensifies.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)
- Expected EPS: $1.17
- Timing: After Market Close (AMC)
- AMD’s results could be pivotal for tech sentiment, with attention focused on AI chip demand and server market share gains. Investors will be looking for clarity on guidance and whether the firm can sustain growth against Nvidia’s dominance.
Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)
- Expected EPS: $0.87
- Timing: Before Market Open (BMO)
- Uber’s earnings will test investor confidence after strong summer ridership trends. Analysts are watching profitability in the mobility segment and delivery margins amid slowing global demand.
With all three companies representing key pillars of tech and consumer spending, this week’s earnings reports could set the tone for broader market sentiment heading into November. Any deviation from expectations — especially on guidance — could fuel heightened volatility across growth sectors.
Gold Price Hangs Around $4,000
Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate cut comments, as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. Earlier this month, gold jumped above $4.3800 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $4,004. The 20 daily SMA (gray) held as support last week, but it gave way yesterday as sellers pushed Gold below $3,900 but buyers returned and pushed XAU above $4K.
USD/JPY Returns to 150
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. However, the new BOJ governor the JPY has weakened and USD/JPY soared to 153 but returned below 152 yesterday.
USD/JPY – Weekly Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
MAs Turn Into Resistance for Bitcoin
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down below $105,000 before finding support at the 200 daily SMA (purple) and recovering above $115,000 but then fell toward $100K again. However last week BTC has turned higher again, climbing above $114K over the weekend but tumbled to $106K on Monday.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ethereum Heads Lower Again
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. ON Friday we saw a dive below $3.500 however buying resumed on Sunday and ETH/USD climbed above $4,500 but returned back down below $4,000 again this week.
ETH/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
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Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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