Oil Price Forecast: WTI Tests $60 Support as OPEC+ Pause Clouds Outlook
WTI crude oil futures dipped below $61 on Tuesday after a four-day rally, as traders reassessed OPEC+’s plan to pause production...
Quick overview
- WTI crude oil futures fell below $61 after a four-day rally as traders reconsidered OPEC+'s production plans.
- OPEC+ approved a modest output increase for December but will pause further hikes from January to March due to weaker demand.
- Technical analysis shows WTI is forming a symmetrical triangle, indicating a potential breakout in either direction.
- Traders should watch key levels: a close above $61.50 could lead to gains, while a drop below $59.27 may signal further declines.
WTI crude oil futures dipped below $61 on Tuesday after a four-day rally, as traders reassessed OPEC+’s plan to pause production increases early next year. The group approved a modest output hike for December but will freeze further additions from January through March, citing weaker seasonal demand.
The decision comes as analysts warn of a potential market surplus in early 2026. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions could offset oversupply risks. Fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian majors Rosneft and Lukoil, along with new drone strikes on energy infrastructure in the Black Sea, keep the supply outlook uncertain.
Technical Setup: Triangle Tightens at $60
On the 4-hour chart, WTI crude is compressing into a symmetrical triangle. It’s framed by rising support from $55.96 and descending resistance from $62.57. Such formations often precede a breakout. The 20-period EMA has flattened near $60.05, reflecting a neutral tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Momentum remains balanced, with the RSI hovering near 52, signaling indecision but leaning slightly bullish. A break above $61.50 could confirm upside momentum toward $62.57, while a drop below $59.27 risks a slide toward $57.40.
What Traders Should Watch
- Bullish trigger: Close above $61.50 → target $62.57–$63.68
- Bearish trigger: Close below $59.27 → target $58.50–$57.40
- Momentum signal: RSI above 55 may confirm renewed buying strength
Outlook
WTI’s current price compression signals a potential volatility spike ahead. With the market balancing OPEC+ restraint against fragile global demand, traders are eyeing the $60 zone as the key battleground. A decisive breakout could set the tone for the remainder of the quarter — either reigniting the rally or confirming a deeper correction toward mid-$50s support.
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