Dow Jones Weekly Forecast: Govt Reopening Talks and Senate Vote Plans Lift Outlook
The Dow and Nasdaq should climb this week as optimism grows around a U.S. government reopening deal, while investors turned their focus to..
Quick overview
- The Dow and Nasdaq are expected to rise this week due to growing optimism around a potential U.S. government reopening deal.
- Recent inflation data has eased concerns, suggesting that price pressures may be cooling faster than anticipated.
- Political progress in Washington, including discussions on a funding agreement, has bolstered market confidence.
- A busy earnings calendar featuring major companies like Sony and Cisco will provide further insights into market momentum.
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The Dow and Nasdaq should climb this week as optimism grows around a U.S. government reopening deal, while investors turned their focus to a packed earnings calendar featuring Sony, Cisco Systems, CoreWeave, and Oklo, with results expected to gauge momentum across tech, and global markets.
Renewed Momentum After a Rocky Week
Global markets breathed a sigh of relief on Friday following a sharp recovery in U.S. equities. After days of heavy selling driven by concerns over the ongoing government shutdown, major indices staged a strong rebound. Reports of progress toward a federal funding agreement eased fears of a prolonged stalemate that had weighed on investor confidence throughout the week.
The Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite both recovered from key support zones, with late-session buying helping erase much of the week’s earlier losses. Although the Nasdaq still closed about 4% lower for the week, Friday’s gains underscored investors’ belief that the market’s long-term upward trend remains intact as the year-end approaches.
Cooling Inflation Restores Confidence
Adding to the optimism, recent inflation data offered a welcome surprise. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey and the New York Fed’s one-year inflation outlook both signaled easing inflation expectations. These readings hinted that price pressures might be cooling faster than forecast, reinforcing hopes that the Federal Reserve could adopt a softer policy stance in the coming months.
This combination of improving inflation dynamics and steady consumer expectations helped shift the market mood from fear to cautious optimism, supporting risk appetite across both equities and bonds.
Political Progress Offers Market Support
In Washington, efforts to resolve the government funding impasse added further momentum. Senate leaders continued discussions over the weekend, with plans for a rare Sunday session aimed at finalizing a deal that could reopen federal operations and extend key healthcare subsidies for another year.
While the legislative process remains fluid, reports indicate that lawmakers are considering a “minibus” appropriations package — combining several long-term funding measures into one bill. The proposal, led by Senate Majority Leader John Thune, seeks to advance the House-passed resolution while securing a broader budget agreement.
Such progress has been welcomed by markets eager for stability, as a successful vote would not only avert a deeper shutdown but also signal renewed bipartisan cooperation at a critical moment for the U.S. economy.
U.S. Stocks End the Week Lower as Tech Losses Deepen
Nasdaq Composite:
- The Nasdaq Composite closed at 23,004.54, falling 4% for the week.
- Heavy losses in large-cap tech and semiconductor names weighed on the index, marking its worst weekly performance since August. Persistent profit-taking and soft guidance from key AI-linked firms kept sentiment cautious.
Dow Jones Industrial Average:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ended the week -1.49% lower.
- Defensive sectors like financials and utilities helped offset declines in industrials, though cyclical weakness and renewed economic uncertainty limited upside momentum.
S&P 500 Index:
- The S&P 500 posted a 2.23% weekly decline.
- Broad-based selling hit growth and consumer discretionary sectors, while energy and healthcare provided modest support late in the session.
A busy week lies ahead for markets as several high-profile companies across technology, finance, and energy release their latest earnings results.
Earnings Reports This Week
Sony Group Corporation (SONY)
- Report: Q2 2025 earnings
- Timing: Before Market Open (BMO)
- Expected EPS: $0.27
- Sony’s results are expected to reflect stronger gaming revenue and improving semiconductor sales, but FX headwinds could weigh on profitability.
CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV)
- Report: Q3 2025 earnings
- Timing: After Market Close (AMC)
- Expected EPS: -$0.51
- Analysts expect continued operating losses as the AI infrastructure firm scales its data center expansion.
Oklo Inc. (OKLO)
- Report: Q3 2025 earnings
- Timing: After Market Close (AMC)
- Expected EPS: -$0.12
- Investors will focus on nuclear deployment progress and new government partnerships amid growing clean energy investment.
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
- Report: Q1 2026 earnings
- Timing: After Market Close (AMC)
- Expected EPS: $0.98
- Cisco’s report will offer insight into enterprise IT demand and its transition toward software and recurring revenue.
Circle Internet Group (CRCL)
- Report: Q3 2025 earnings
- Timing: Before Market Open (BMO)
- Expected EPS: $0.17
- Circle’s financials will be closely watched for signs of stablecoin adoption growth and regulatory clarity.
TMC the Metals Company Inc. (TMC)
- Report: Q3 2025 earnings
- Timing: After Market Close (AMC)
- Expected EPS: -$0.05
- Focus remains on seabed mining progress and environmental approvals for the next phase of exploration.
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)
- Report: Q2 2026 earnings
- Timing: Before Market Open (BMO)
- Expected EPS: $5.78
- Alibaba’s results will highlight consumer spending trends in China and progress in its cloud division restructuring.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG)
- Report: Q2 2025 earnings
- Timing: Tokyo Normal Session (TNS)
- Expected EPS: $0.26
- Analysts expect stable results, supported by rising global rates and resilient lending operations.
Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT)
- Report: Q3 2025 earnings
- Timing: After Market Close (AMC)
- Expected EPS: -$0.05
- The company remains in focus as it moves from R&D to commercial applications in quantum hardware.
Conclusion: Optimism Returns, but Uncertainty Lingers
Friday’s sharp rebound reflects a clear shift in sentiment after a turbulent week. Investors appear increasingly confident that Washington will avoid a protracted shutdown, and easing inflation expectations have further brightened the near-term outlook. While volatility may persist until a final funding deal is reached, the late-week rally suggests that markets remain fundamentally resilient — and ready to push higher once political clouds begin to clear.
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