South Africans Brace for Higher Petrol and Diesel Prices in December
As local currency gains are overshadowed by global oil dynamics, December is expected to deliver unwanted fuel price rises at the pump.
Quick overview
- December is expected to see fuel price increases in South Africa due to rising global oil prices despite a recent recovery of the rand.
- Current projections indicate petrol prices may rise by 14 to 19 cents per litre, while diesel could increase by 68 to 82 cents per litre.
- The anticipated fuel hikes are part of broader inflationary pressures affecting transportation and household energy costs.
- Official pricing adjustments will be announced by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy before December begins.
As local currency gains are overshadowed by global oil dynamics, December is expected to deliver unwanted fuel price rises at the pump.
Rand Recovery Meets Global Oil Headwinds
South Africa’s rand impressed earlier this week, strengthening sharply against the US dollar following a well-received national budget review. However, this currency boost has not been enough to shield motorists from rising fuel costs heading into December.
Mid-month figures from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) reveal that both petrol and diesel are tracking negative under-recoveries, signalling that price hikes are becoming increasingly likely.
Oil Market Dynamics Tilt the Price Balance
The biggest driver behind the expected increases is the climb in global crude oil prices. After a period of relative calm in October, oil has moved decisively higher, largely due to renewed US sanctions on Russian exports. This geopolitical squeeze has added upward pressure on global supply, pushing benchmark prices into a stronger uptrend.
Although the rand’s recent performance is helping to soften the blow, the currency would need to remain consistently strong for a longer stretch to meaningfully reverse the trend. Early signs of fatigue in the rand’s rally suggest this may be difficult to maintain as the month progresses.
What Motorists Can Expect in December
Based on current market conditions, petrol prices are set for moderate increases, with early projections pointing to rises of between 14 and 19 cents per litre. Diesel, however, faces a considerably larger adjustment, with estimates indicating hikes in the region of 68 to 82 cents per litre.
These anticipated increases align with broader inflationary pressures on both transportation and household energy costs, suggesting that consumers may face a more expensive festive season.
Projected Fuel Adjustments in South Africa
- Petrol 93: Expected to rise by 14 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: Expected to rise by 19 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): Projected increase of 68 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): Projected increase of 82 cents per litre
- Illuminating Paraffin: Anticipated rise of 73 cents per litre
Data Limitations and the Road Ahead
The CEF’s daily pricing snapshots do not include updates for LP gas, making it impossible at this stage to estimate next month’s levels. Additionally, the mid-month figures are not definitive; they simply reflect prevailing market conditions during the first half of November.
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy will release the official pricing adjustment shortly before it takes effect at the start of December. Until then, the CEF’s readings remain the best indication of the direction fuel costs are heading.
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