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Forex Signals December 4: EU Inflation, Then Kroger, TD, BMO, CIBC Bank Earnings Preview
A busy earnings day features key Canadian banks alongside U.S. retail giant Kroger, offering fresh insight into financial stability and cons
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Last updated: Thursday, December 4, 2025
Quick overview
- Key Canadian banks and Kroger are set to report earnings, providing insights into financial stability and consumer demand as the year ends.
- The U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies following a disappointing ADP employment report, which showed a drop in private payrolls.
- Major U.S. equity indices posted modest gains despite mixed economic data, with the Dow Jones leading the rise.
- Crude oil and gold prices increased, while Bitcoin continued its upward momentum, reaching $93,500.
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MARKETS TREND
A busy earnings day features key Canadian banks alongside U.S. retail giant Kroger, offering fresh insight into financial stability and consumer demand heading into year-end.
Dollar Retreats Across Majors
The U.S. dollar finished the session weaker against all major currencies, with GBP/USD showing the strongest advance. The pullback in the greenback was largely driven by a disappointing U.S. ADP employment update. November’s report showed a 32,000 drop in private payrolls, contrary to expectations for a small increase. Although the prior month was revised up to 47,000, the latest reading reflected broad softness, including declines of 19K in goods-producing jobs and 13K in services.
U.S. Equity Markets End Slightly Higher
Major U.S. indices posted modest gains.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average led with a 0.80% rise,
- The S&P 500 added 0.30%, and
- The NASDAQ edged up 0.17%.
Overall, markets maintained a stable tone despite mixed economic data.
Commodities and Crypto
Crude oil prices moved up by roughly $0.50 to $59, while gold increased $3.60 to $4,209.37. Bitcoin continued its upward momentum, climbing another $2,000 to $93,500.
Key Market Events to Watch Thursday
Eurozone Flash HICP (Thursday Preview)
October’s HICP landed at 2.1%, in line with expectations, though both core and super-core components were slightly firmer. Services inflation also picked up to 3.4% from 3.2%. Early November flash data have been mixed, with France coming in cooler and Spain somewhat hotter than forecast. Recent PMIs signaled further acceleration in services inflation, though slowing sales-price pressures may offset this trend.
Economists at HCOB noted that there is “no reason to tighten monetary policy”, adding that rates are likely to remain unchanged in December.
Earnings Calendar: Key Releases to Watch
Today’s earnings lineup provides a broad snapshot of North American economic health, spanning consumer behavior, credit conditions, and financial-sector stability. With three major Canadian banks reporting before the open—and Kroger delivering key insight into U.S. household spending—markets will be watching closely for guidance that shapes expectations heading into the final stretch of 2025.
Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) – Q4 2025 Earnings – Before Market Open
- Expected EPS: 2.01
- TD’s results will provide an updated read on loan growth, credit quality, and the pace of deposit normalization as the bank navigates a cooling rate environment.
- Investors are watching for clarity around U.S. regulatory pressure and cross-border performance trends.
- Market focus centers on whether TD maintains its defensive posture or signals a shift toward renewed growth initiatives.
Bank of Montreal (BMO) – Q4 2025 Earnings – Before Market Open
- Expected EPS: 3.03
- BMO’s report is likely to highlight trends in its North American commercial lending book and integration progress following recent strategic acquisitions.
- Analysts anticipate commentary on credit provisions, especially in real estate and small business exposures.
- Shareholders will monitor capital strength and guidance surrounding buybacks going into 2026.
Kroger (KR) – Q3 2025 Earnings – Before Market Open
- Expected EPS: 0.98
- Kroger’s results arrive at a time when consumer spending is shifting toward essential goods, giving grocery chains relative resilience.
- Margins will be in focus as food inflation moderates and competition remains intense across retail and discount chains.
- Markets expect updates on digital sales performance, loyalty programs, and store modernization initiatives.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC / CM) – Q4 2025 Earnings – Before Market Open
- Expected EPS: 2.08
- CIBC’s earnings are highly watched for developments in mortgage growth and household leverage trends—critical for a bank with heavy exposure to the Canadian consumer.
- Credit performance, particularly in personal lending, will be a key risk indicator.
- Investors will look for signals on cost-cutting measures and future capital distribution plans.
Gold Pushes Above November Highs
Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate cut comments, as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. Earlier this month, gold jumped above $4.3800 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $4,004. The 20 daily SMA (gray) held as support last week and buyers returned and pushed XAU above $4,200K yesterday.
USD/JPY Returns to 150
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. However, the new BOJ governor the JPY has weakened and USD/JPY soared to 154 and we decided to close our buy signal for more than 80 pips.
USD/JPY – Weekly Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin breaks Above the 20 Daily SMA
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down below $105,000 before finding support at the 200 daily SMA (purple) and recovering above $115,000 but then fell toward $100K again. However over the weekend BTC started to rebound and the price climbed but reversed lower after finding resistance at the 20 daily SMA (gray) which was broken yesterday though.
BTC/USD – Daily Chart
Ethereum Rebounds Off Support
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. Last week we saw a dive below $2.700 but the 200 weekly SMA held as support and we’re seeing a rebound.
ETH/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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