Forex Signals December 10: Fed Rate Cut, Oracle Q3 Earnings Preview

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The Fed and Bank of Canada are scheduled to make important rate decisions this coming week, and Oracle’s quarterly earnings add yet another significant factor to the macro-tech story.

JOLTS Data Shows Labor Market Holding Steady

The latest JOLTS report for October showed job openings inching up to 7.67 million, slightly above September’s 7.66 million and defying expectations for a decline. Hiring remained steady at 5.15 million, keeping the hires rate near 3.2%. The data signals a labor market that is neither accelerating nor collapsing — a steady “no-hire, no-fire” environment where demand has cooled but remains intact.

Silver Breaks Record as Equities Deliver a Mixed Close

Silver surged to a historic milestone, breaking above $60 per ounce for the first time and touching intraday highs near $60.91. Meanwhile, U.S. equities ended mixed: the Dow Jones and S&P 500 slipped, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 inched higher. The small-cap index briefly reached a fresh intraday record before finishing just four points shy of last week’s all-time closing level.

Key Market Events to Watch Thursday

FOMC Poised for a Close Call on a 25 bp Cut

The Federal Reserve meets this week with a 25 bp rate cut viewed as the most likely outcome, though internal divisions suggest the decision may be tight. Persistent inflation — boosted in part by tariff-driven pricing — remains a challenge, but softer labor trends strengthen the case for easing. Updated Fed projections are expected to show one additional cut in 2026, contrasting with market expectations for two to three cuts.

Investors are also watching developments around the 2026 Fed chair nomination. A candidate such as Kevin Hassett could shift concerns from slow easing to the risk of a more aggressive policy stance, adding another layer of uncertainty to next year’s outlook.

Bank of Canada Expected to Hold Rates Amid Improving Data

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave policy unchanged this week following two consecutive rate cuts in September and October. Incoming data suggests the economy is stabilizing: GDP has topped expectations, employment rose 54,000 in November, and unemployment eased from 7.1% to 6.5%. Recent cuts have supported household spending, though inflation remains above the 2% target, with potential upward pressure in 2026. Even so, markets are not pricing in additional rate cuts next year.

Oracle’s Q2 Outlook

Revenue Expectations:

• Oracle’s second-quarter sales are projected to rise 15% to $16.15 billion, up from $14.06 billion in the same period last year, according to Zacks estimates.

Earnings Forecast:

• With stronger top-line momentum, Q2 EPS is expected to climb 11% to $1.63, compared with $1.47 a year earlier.

Overall View:

• Analysts anticipate another solid quarter supported by expanding cloud demand and stable enterprise spending.
• Rapid Acceleration in AI Cloud Demand

Massive Revenue Expansion Ahead:

• Oracle has stunned analysts with projections that cloud-infrastructure revenue will surge from $18 billion today to $144 billion within four years, highlighting one of the most aggressive growth paths among major cloud providers.

Major AI Commitments:

• The company has secured nearly $500 billion in AI-related agreements from OpenAI, xAI, Meta Platforms, and TikTok — fueling expectations that Oracle will capture a much larger slice of the global cloud and AI infrastructure market.

Strategic Implication:

• These commitments position Oracle as an increasingly central player in AI-driven compute, strengthening long-term visibility and potentially redefining the competitive landscape across hyperscale cloud services.

Gold Sticks to $4,200

Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate cut comments, as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. Earlier this month, gold jumped above $4.3800 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $4,004. The 20 daily SMA (gray) held as support last week and buyers returned and pushed XAU above $4,200K yesterday.

USD/JPY Rebounds Off the 20 Daily SMA

USD/JPY – Weekly Chart

Cryptocurrency Update

The 20 Daily SMA Turns Into Support for BTC

Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down below $105,000 before finding support at the 200 daily SMA (purple) and recovering above $115,000 but then fell toward $100K again. However over the weekend BTC started to rebound and the price climbed but reversed lower after finding resistance at the 20 daily SMA (gray) which was broken yesterday though.

BTC/USD – Daily Chart

Ethereum Faces the 50 Daily SMA

Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. Last week we saw a dive below $2.700 but the 200 weekly SMA held as support and we’re seeing a rebound but buyers face the 50 SMA (yellow) now.

ETH/USD – Daily Chart

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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