Rigetti Falls Again As ORCL Earnings Miss: Can RGTI Stock Survive Harsh Market Reality?
Rigetti Computing's brief comeback has already fallen apart, with the stock plunging substantially lower once more due to new earnings...
Quick overview
- Rigetti Computing's stock has sharply declined again after a brief recovery, driven by weak sector sentiment and disappointing earnings from Oracle.
- Despite an ambitious technological roadmap, Rigetti struggles with financial performance and investor skepticism, leading to heightened volatility.
- Recent insider selling and concerns over China's advancements in quantum technology have further eroded investor confidence in Rigetti.
- The broader quantum computing sector is facing a harsh reality check, as initial hopes for rapid monetization give way to the challenges of long development cycles and high costs.
Live ORCL Chart
[[ORCL-graph]]
Rigetti Computing’s brief comeback has already fallen apart, with the stock plunging substantially lower once more due to new earnings disappointments and poor sector sentiment.
Rigetti’s Fragile Recovery Loses Steam
Rigetti Computing’s performance in recent weeks has once again highlighted the volatility that defines early-stage quantum technology companies. After suffering a steep slide throughout November, the stock staged a partial rebound—but one that never truly convinced investors. The recovery proved too shallow and too short-lived to shift sentiment, and this week the decline has resumed with renewed force. A disappointing earnings miss from Oracle has added more pressure, reigniting concerns about demand, competitiveness, and the financial fragility of the broader quantum industry.
Despite its ambitious technological roadmap, Rigetti continues to be whipsawed by the rapid shifts in investor appetite that characterize emerging sectors. Early in the year, enthusiasm drove the stock dramatically higher on expectations of a breakthrough in commercial quantum computing. But as reality set in and speculative euphoria faded, the share price slipped back into a more cautious, valuation-sensitive environment.
A Weak Rebound That Never Addressed Deeper Problems
Throughout November, selling pressure intensified sharply. Even Nvidia’s blockbuster results provided only temporary relief, offering a fleeting bounce that quickly evaporated as buyers remained wary. The issue wasn’t simply market conditions—it was the growing disconnect between Rigetti’s financial performance and its elevated valuation.
The stock eventually found a floor near the 20-week simple moving average (gray), which helped halt the decline and spark a short-term recovery. From this level, Rigetti climbed back above $30, hinting at a potential stabilization. But technical resistance at the 50-week moving average (yellow) capped the rebound almost immediately.
RGTI Chart Weekly – The 20 SMA Has Turned Into Support Now
This week, sellers regained control, sending the stock down to the mid-$20s after Oracle’s weaker-than-expected results rattled sentiment around enterprise AI and next-generation computing. For Rigetti, which depends heavily on investor belief in long-term adoption, this was another unwelcome shock. If the price breaks below the crucial $21.50 support zone, a move under $20 becomes increasingly likely.
Oracle’s Miss Adds Pressure To Quantum-Linked Stocks
Oracle posted Q4 CY2025 results that showed strong non-GAAP profitability but a revenue figure that fell short of Wall Street expectations. With cloud infrastructure spending closely tied to both AI and quantum development, the miss was seen as a signal that the next phase of enterprise technology investment may be slowing.
For quantum computing firms—already facing skepticism—this was enough to trigger another wave of selling. Rigetti, still lacking meaningful revenue traction, remains exceptionally sensitive to any signs of weakness in broader tech spending.
Oracle (ORCL) Q4 CY2025 Performance Snapshot
- Revenue: $16.06 billion, rising 14.2% year over year but coming in 0.8% below analyst expectations of $16.19 billion.
- Adjusted EPS: $2.26, delivering a strong 38% beat compared to consensus estimates of $1.64.
- Adjusted Operating Income: $6.72 billion, narrowly missing the $6.81 billion forecast, with a healthy 41.9% margin.
- Operating Margin: Reported at 29.5%, matching the margin recorded in the same period last year.
- Free Cash Flow: – $13.18 billion, a sharp decline from the previous quarter’s -$362 million, signaling heavier cash outflows.
- Market Capitalization: Stands at $631.5 billion, reflecting sustained long-term investor confidence despite quarterly variances.
China’s Quantum Acceleration Raises New Strategic Risks
A growing strategic concern for investors is China’s rapid advancement in quantum technology. Much like the shock disruption caused by China’s DeepSeek model in the AI sector, quantum computing could see a similar competitive surprise. Although the impact has not yet materialized, the direction is unmistakable: China’s state-supported ecosystem could challenge U.S. quantum valuations and compress expectations for profitability.
For Rigetti, the timing is uncomfortable. With a market cap near $9 billion against annual revenue of just $7.5 million, its valuation leaves little margin for error.
Insider Selling Adds To Unease
Investor confidence was further challenged by insider sales disclosed in late November. CFO Jeffrey Bertelsen and CTO David Rivas sold more than 45,000 shares at prices around $26, generating roughly $1.2 million. While insider sales can be benign, the timing—during a fragile period—has intensified market skepticism.
Valuation Risks Remain Front And Center
Rigetti’s valuation continues to reflect a long-term success story that is far from guaranteed. The company’s latest quarterly results illustrate the dilemma:
- Revenue fell to $1.9 million, a 20% drop.
- Operating loss widened to $20.5 million.
- GAAP net loss surged to $201 million, largely due to revaluations.
- Even the non-GAAP loss of $10.7 million, though marginally better than forecast, was still deeply negative.
These figures reinforce the narrative that Rigetti is burning capital at an unsustainable pace while struggling to gain commercial traction.
A Sector Undergoing a Harsh Reality Check
Rigetti’s difficulties are not isolated—they reflect a broader re-rating across quantum computing. Initial hopes for rapid monetization and widespread deployment have run into the realities of long development cycles, high costs, and unclear near-term demand. As the industry shifts from hype to execution, investors are becoming far more selective, pressuring companies like Rigetti to prove not only their technology, but their business model.
For now, the weight of structural, financial, and competitive challenges continues to overshadow Rigetti’s brief rebounds, signaling that volatility may remain the defining feature of its stock for the foreseeable future.
- Check out our free forex signals
- Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
- Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
- Open a FREE Trading Account
Save