BTC Price Prediction: Outlook Still Bullish as Bitcoin Stays Supported Technically and Fundamentally
Bitcoin has regained footing after November’s severe correction, with bullish signals suggesting the path toward $100,000 remains plausible
Quick overview
- Bitcoin has rebounded from November's significant correction, with bullish signals indicating a potential path toward $100,000.
- The cryptocurrency's recovery above key technical levels has reassured investors despite ongoing market fragility.
- Macro factors, including central bank policies and labor market data, are influencing market sentiment and expectations for Bitcoin's performance.
- Long-term outlook remains cautiously bullish, supported by institutional demand and favorable macro conditions, despite potential short-term fluctuations.
Live BTC/USD Chart
Bitcoin has regained footing after November’s severe correction, with bullish signals suggesting the path toward $100,000 remains plausible despite short-term headwinds.
A Stabilizing Turn After November Turmoil
Bitcoin recovered from its sharp late-November losses that erased nearly $1 trillion from the broader cryptocurrency market. During that period, BTC briefly tested the $80,000 region before buyers intervened, pushing the price back above $90,000 and preventing a deeper collapse. Despite uneven momentum beneath short-term resistance, the cryptocurrency’s ability to rebound above key technical thresholds has reassured investors after one of the most turbulent stretches of the year.
BTC/USD Chart Weekly – Rebounding Off the 100 SMA
The November correction coincided with broad weakness in global equities as investors retreated from risk. The drop lacked a single catalyst; instead, it was fueled by psychological pressure, profit-taking, and elevated volatility. At its nadir, BTC fell below $81,000, with the total crypto market capitalization contracting by nearly $1 trillion. While stock markets recovered and reached new record highs, Bitcoin’s rebound into early December stalled, and it slipped below $90,000 over the weekend, illustrating the market’s ongoing fragility.
Technical Levels Anchoring the Recovery
Bitcoin’s structure remained more constructive than headlines suggested, despite the severity of the selloff. BTC briefly dipped below the 50-week Simple Moving Average (yellow), a key level historically associated with bull-market phases, but sellers failed to sustain downward momentum. The 100-week SMA (green), around $82,000, proved to be the true defensive line, absorbing heavy liquidation flows and allowing buyers to regain control. Beneath this, the April low near $74,000 continues to define a critical long-term support area.
BTC/USD Chart Monthly – The 20 SMA Still Holding
The rebound above the 100-week SMA carried BTC back above $90,000, but buyers struggled to push beyond this level. Larger timeframes, such as the 20 SMA (gray) on the monthly chart, continue to provide support. Traders are evaluating whether Bitcoin has sufficient momentum to challenge the $100,000 mark or if a corrective retest of November lows is necessary before the next leg higher. Beneath the surface, momentum appears to be shifting gradually, with sellers losing conviction and large holders quietly positioning for potential upside.
Macro Factors Driving Market Sentiment
Central bank activity is adding complexity to market dynamics. While the Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Canada, and Reserve Bank of Australia are expected to maintain current rates, the Federal Reserve’s December meeting remains the focal point. Markets anticipate another 25-basis-point rate cut, generally supportive for risk assets, though the tone of the Fed’s guidance will heavily influence near-term crypto performance.
Labor market data underscores expectations for continued easing. ADP reported a 32,000 job loss, Challenger layoffs exceeded 71,000, and September payrolls showed a modest 119,000 gain. These figures indicate a cooling labor market, increasing the likelihood that monetary policy will remain dovish.
Investors are closely monitoring a series of upcoming U.S. releases, including unemployment figures, ADP data, weekly jobless claims, November inflation data, December flash PMIs, and Federal Reserve speeches. Each of these will shape expectations for interest rates and risk appetite. Globally, markets are also attentive to Japan, where the Bank of Japan is widely expected to adjust policy later this week, potentially influencing broader sentiment in risk assets.
Mining Dynamics and Market Pressure
Bitcoin’s current trading around $92,000 places it close to the estimated production cost of roughly $94,000. This dynamic continues to pressure miners, particularly high-cost operations, forcing them to liquidate holdings to maintain solvency. However, analysts now believe miners are no longer the primary driver of Bitcoin’s next major move. Instead, the focus is shifting toward large institutional holders, such as MicroStrategy, and their ability to maintain positions without triggering forced sales during market stress.
A Shifting Policy Landscape
Political developments in Washington have created a more crypto-friendly environment. Following Donald Trump’s return to office, several Biden-era directives have been rescinded, a U.S. Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) has been prohibited, and a new Digital Asset Markets working group has been launched. The GENIUS Act, the first major federal stablecoin law, has also advanced, and a strategic Bitcoin reserve has been established.
Enforcement actions against crypto have been rolled back, signaling a broader shift toward accommodating digital assets. Yet, cryptocurrencies were notably absent from the new national security strategy, which emphasizes AI, quantum computing, and biotech as core priorities. This omission has prompted debate over whether crypto remains a central political focus or primarily a financial-market initiative.
Looking Ahead
Despite recent volatility, the longer-term outlook for Bitcoin remains cautiously bullish. Key technical supports have held, institutional demand is present, and macro conditions—especially potential Fed easing—remain favorable for risk assets. Short-term fluctuations are likely as traders digest labor data, central bank signals, and geopolitical developments, but the path toward $100,000 remains intact on broader timeframes.
Investors will continue to watch Bitcoin’s reaction to resistance levels, monitor miner activity, and assess institutional positioning. While the market may pause or retrace in the short term, the underlying structure suggests that the cryptocurrency remains resilient, with bullish momentum gradually reasserting itself.
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