South Africa January Fuel Projections: Diesel Down by R1, Petrol Prices Poised to Ease After December Surge
After a punishing round of fuel hikes in December, South African motorists may finally see some relief as early indicators point to lower...
Quick overview
- South African motorists may see lower fuel prices in January after a difficult December marked by significant hikes.
- Early data indicates petrol prices could decrease by 15 to 17 cents per litre, while diesel may drop by up to R1 per litre.
- The anticipated price reductions are attributed to falling global oil prices and a stronger rand.
- Final fuel prices will be confirmed shortly before they take effect on January 7, so motorists should stay alert for updates.
After a punishing round of fuel hikes in December, South African motorists may finally see some relief as early indicators point to lower prices in January.
Fuel Price Pressure Begins to Ease
Early indications suggest that fuel prices in South Africa are on track for a meaningful decline in the new year. According to mid-month data released by the Central Energy Fund (CEF), both petrol and diesel prices are showing clear signs of over-recovery, raising expectations of lower pump prices in January.
This shift marks a notable turnaround from December, when motorists were hit with sharp increases that strained household budgets and transport costs.
Global Oil Prices and Rand Strength Drive the Change
The improving outlook is largely being driven by softer international oil prices and a stronger local currency. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has dropped to around $55 a barrel, easing input costs for fuel imports. At the same time, the rand has strengthened, pushing the rand-denominated oil price to its lowest levels in several years.
Together, these factors have created favorable conditions for fuel price reductions.
Petrol and Diesel Show Solid Over-Recovery
Petrol prices are now consistently pointing to a reduction of between 15 and 17 cents per litre, a sharp reversal from earlier in the month when increases were still on the table. Diesel has performed even better, with current data indicating an over-recovery of close to R1 per litre heading into January.
Projected Petrol and Fuel Price Adjustments for January (Indicative)
Petrol 93 (ULP)
- Expected price cut of around 15 cents per litre
- Relief driven mainly by lower international fuel prices and a firmer rand
Petrol 95 (ULP)
- Forecast decrease of approximately 17 cents per litre
- Reflects softer refined petrol prices in global markets
Diesel 0.05% sulphur (wholesale)
- Anticipated reduction of about 94 cents per litre
- Largest benefit among fuel types due to weaker global diesel demand
Diesel 0.005% sulphur (wholesale)
- Expected price drop of roughly 102 cents per litre
- Supported by declining international gasoil prices and improved supply conditions
Illuminating paraffin
- Projected decrease of around 69 cents per litre
- Provides some cost relief for households relying on paraffin for heating and cookin
Final Prices Still Subject to Change
While the outlook is encouraging, these figures remain provisional. Fuel price projections can still shift before month-end, and the final adjustments will only be confirmed shortly before they take effect. Official January fuel prices are scheduled to be implemented on Wednesday, January 7.
Daily CEF snapshots provide useful guidance, but they do not always reflect the final outcome, meaning motorists should remain cautious until the official announcement is made.
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