XAU/USD – Daily Chart
btc-usd
Forex Signals Dec 18: Nike and FedEx Earnings Preview, Lead ECB and BoE Rate Desicions
Investors are balancing key earnings from Nike and FedEx against pivotal policy signals from the ECB and Bank of England, setting up a...
•
Last updated: Thursday, December 18, 2025
Quick overview
- Investors are navigating key earnings reports from Nike and FedEx while awaiting policy signals from the ECB and Bank of England, leading to a potentially volatile market environment.
- Commodity markets are rallying, with silver and oil prices rising significantly as investors seek safe havens amid economic uncertainty.
- European economic data is raising concerns ahead of the ECB meeting, where no interest rate changes are expected but market sentiment remains cautious.
- In the UK, softer inflation data supports the case for gradual monetary easing, while US equity markets, particularly technology stocks, are experiencing notable declines.
Live BTC/USD Chart
BTC/USD
MARKETS TREND
Investors are balancing key earnings from Nike and FedEx against pivotal policy signals from the ECB and Bank of England, setting up a potentially volatile session.
Commodities Extend Their Rally as Markets Turn Cautious
Commodity markets strengthened further, with silver leading the advance after surging more than 4%, while oil prices climbed nearly 3%. Gold also pushed higher, gaining around 1% as investors sought diversification amid rising uncertainty. The move suggests a defensive undertone developing across markets, with traders positioning cautiously ahead of key central bank decisions later in the week.
The strength in precious metals and energy reflects a combination of inflation hedging, geopolitical risk, and reduced conviction in equity markets following recent volatility in technology stocks.
European Data Weighs on Sentiment Ahead of ECB Decision
Attention is firmly on Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. While no policy shift is anticipated, markets remain alert to any changes in tone from President Christine Lagarde, particularly around the path of inflation and future rate cuts.
Economic data out of Europe continues to raise concerns. Germany’s Ifo business climate index fell to its lowest level since May, reinforcing signs that the eurozone’s largest economy remains under pressure. Despite these headwinds, expectations are that the ECB will reiterate its data-dependent stance, emphasizing caution amid persistent services inflation.
UK Inflation Softens, Supporting the Case for Gradual Easing
In the United Kingdom, inflation data surprised to the downside. Headline CPI eased to 3.2%, below expectations of 3.5%, largely driven by falling food prices. Core inflation also cooled, slipping 0.2% on a month-over-month basis.
The softer inflation print strengthens the argument for gradual monetary easing, though policymakers remain mindful of lingering price pressures and the need to avoid easing prematurely.
US Equity Markets Slide as Nasdaq Leads Losses
US equities ended the session lower, with selling pressure most pronounced in technology stocks. The Nasdaq Composite posted the steepest decline, falling nearly 1.8%, as investors continued to rotate away from high-growth names. The S&P 500 also closed lower, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average proved relatively more resilient but still finished in negative territory.
The pullback reflects a broader reassessment of risk, particularly as elevated valuations collide with tighter financial conditions and rising macro uncertainty.
Key Market Events to Watch Today: Micron Q3 Earnings
Today’s session combines high-profile earnings with pivotal central bank decisions, creating a complex risk environment. Strong results or reassuring guidance from Nike and FedEx could help stabilize sentiment, but any hawkish surprise from the ECB or BoE may overshadow corporate positives. Markets are likely to react not just to the data, but to how confident companies and policymakers sound about the road ahead.
ECB and BOE in Focus as Policy Paths Diverge
In today’s meeting, one central bank is expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut, bringing its policy rate down to 3.75%. However, the decision appears finely balanced, with policymakers divided and a notable portion of the committee likely to oppose easing. While inflation has moderated and wage growth has cooled, concerns about weakening economic momentum will dominate the discussion.
Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged at 2.00%. Recent data supports a steady stance, with parts of the economy holding up and business surveys remaining in expansionary territory. Persistent inflation in the services sector continues to justify caution, and any meaningful policy shift is likely to depend on further evidence of sustained disinflation.
Earnings Calendar Highlights (Today)
Accenture (ACN)
- Fiscal Q1 2026 earnings, before market open (BMO)
- Consensus EPS: $3.72
- Focus: enterprise IT spending trends, AI consulting demand, and forward guidance.
Nike (NKE)
- Fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, after market close (AMC)
- Consensus EPS: $0.37
Key themes to watch:
- North American demand recovery versus ongoing discounting pressures
- China sales momentum and inventory normalization
- Gross margin trends amid promotions and input-cost pressures
- Guidance on FY2026 growth and brand investment
FedEx (FDX)
- Fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, after market close (AMC)
- Consensus EPS: $4.11
Market focus:
- Cost-cutting progress under DRIVE initiatives
- Freight and express volume trends as a proxy for global trade
- Margin resilience in a mixed macro environment
- Management outlook on demand into 2026
Gold Stays Above $4,300
Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate cut comments, as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. Earlier this month, gold jumped above $4.3800 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $4,004. The 20 daily SMA (gray) held as support last week and buyers returned and pushed XAU above $4,300K where it has traded all week.
USD/JPY Returns Lower After the FOMC
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. However, the new BOJ governor the JPY has weakened and USD/JPY soared to 154 and we decided to close our buy signal for more than 80 pips as the pair found support at the 20 daily SMA (gray) and has rebounded more than 200 pips off that MA but reversed after the 25 bps rate cut from the FED.
USD/JPY – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
The 100 Weekly SMA Still Holding for BTC
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down below $105,000 before finding support at the 200 daily SMA (purple) and recovering above $115,000 but then fell toward $100K again. However BTC remains supported by the 100 weekly SMA (green) and only a break below that would risk further losses.
BTC/USD – Daily Chart
Ethereum Faces the 50 Daily SMA
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. Last week we saw a dive below $2.700 but the 200 weekly SMA held as support and we’re seeing a rebound but buyers face the 50 SMA (yellow) now.
ETH/USD – Daily Chart
- Check out our free forex signals
- Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
- Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
- Open a FREE Trading Account
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
See More
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
Save